450
FXUS64 KOHX 311645
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
- DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
STARTS TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WE ARE NOT QUITE DONE WITH THE VERY HUMID, UNSETTLED PATTERN WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST 10 DAYS. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL
CROSS THE AREA KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY. TODAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID WITH ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ALONG A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN AND MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY, AND THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF EPISODES OF CONCERN. WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CAMS
VARY, BUT GENERALLY SHOW 2 POSSIBLE WAVES OF STORMS. THE FIRST,
MORE LIKELY MCS IS SHOWN COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. ANOTHER MCS POSSIBILITY IS SHOWN LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE FIRST MAY AFFECT THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SECOND, SO WE MAY NEED TO JUST WAIT AND SEE THE DETAILS AS
THINGS UNFOLD ON MONDAY. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS, PLEASE CHECK
UPDATES EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT LATE
MONDAY EVENING, AND BY TUESDAY MORNING WE WILL FEEL NORTH
NORTHEAST BREEZES KICKING IN WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING US RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT. NIGHTS WILL BE A LITTLE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WHILE DAYTIMES WILL BRING
WARM SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 80S.
BY THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AS HUMIDITY STARTS TO CREEP UP AGAIN WITH CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. IF A TERMINAL IS IMPACTED BY A STORM, VIS
MAY BE REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR. SHOWERS AND STORMS CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z. MODELS ARE SHOWING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z WITH CSV/SRB MOST LIKELY BEING IMPACTED.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 66 84 63 / 50 20 70 30
CLARKSVILLE 84 65 83 61 / 20 10 70 20
CROSSVILLE 75 61 79 56 / 50 50 50 20
COLUMBIA 84 65 84 62 / 70 30 70 40
COOKEVILLE 79 63 81 58 / 60 40 60 20
JAMESTOWN 78 60 80 55 / 50 40 50 20
LAWRENCEBURG 84 64 82 62 / 70 30 60 40
MURFREESBORO 83 64 85 61 / 60 30 60 40
WAVERLY 85 66 84 63 / 40 10 70 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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