257
FXUS64 KOHX 312348
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
648 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
- DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
STARTS TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DOWN. ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
CONDITIONS REMAIN MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS INT HE 60S, TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST, WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THINGS
TREND QUIETER. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN IN SPOTS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WE ARE NOT QUITE DONE WITH THE VERY HUMID, UNSETTLED PATTERN WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST 10 DAYS. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL
CROSS THE AREA KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY. TODAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID WITH ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ALONG A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN AND MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY, AND THERE COULD BE A
COUPLE OF EPISODES OF CONCERN. WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CAMS
VARY, BUT GENERALLY SHOW 2 POSSIBLE WAVES OF STORMS. THE FIRST,
MORE LIKELY MCS IS SHOWN COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. ANOTHER MCS POSSIBILITY IS SHOWN LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE FIRST MAY AFFECT THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SECOND, SO WE MAY NEED TO JUST WAIT AND SEE THE DETAILS AS
THINGS UNFOLD ON MONDAY. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS, PLEASE CHECK
UPDATES EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT LATE
MONDAY EVENING, AND BY TUESDAY MORNING WE WILL FEEL NORTH
NORTHEAST BREEZES KICKING IN WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING US RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT. NIGHTS WILL BE A LITTLE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WHILE DAYTIMES WILL BRING
WARM SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 80S.
BY THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AS HUMIDITY STARTS TO CREEP UP AGAIN WITH CHANCES FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SOME UNCERTAINTIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO TS, MAINLY FOR
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE'S A SIGNAL FOR A
CLUSTER OF STORMS TO IMPACT CKV, BNA, AND MQY IN THE MORNING, SO
KEPT PROB30 FOR NOW. AFTERNOON POTENTIAL WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON
HOW MORNING ACTIVITY EVOLVES.
OTHERWISE, WE HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT CKV AND BNA CURRENTLY
WITH LINGERING -RA AT MQY. SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF
BNA, BUT NOTHING IN VICINITY AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT IFR AT SRB
AND CSV DUE TO LOW CIG/VIS IS MORE LIKELY THANKS TO RECENT
RAINFALL. KEPT BR MENTIONED AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT THESE SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 84 62 81 / 70 80 40 0
CLARKSVILLE 66 83 60 80 / 40 80 30 0
CROSSVILLE 62 78 55 76 / 70 60 20 0
COLUMBIA 66 84 62 81 / 70 80 30 0
COOKEVILLE 64 80 57 78 / 70 70 20 0
JAMESTOWN 61 80 54 77 / 50 60 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 65 82 62 79 / 70 90 30 0
MURFREESBORO 65 84 61 81 / 70 80 40 0
WAVERLY 67 84 62 81 / 50 90 30 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CRAVENS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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