956
FXUS64 KOHX 010504
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1204 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
- DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
STARTS TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AS OF LATE THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS MIDDLE TN. SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, AND WITH RECENT RAINS, AREAS OF FOG WILL BECOME
INCREASING LIKELY. BY MID MORNING, ANY FOG THAT HAD FORMED WILL
DISSIPATE. AS YOU HAVE LIKELY SEEN BY NOW, THERE IS A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY. CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COMPLEX OR MCS
REMNANTS TO BE ONGOING OVER SE MISSOURI EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE MID STATE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (25-35 KTS). LAPSE RATES COULD BE BETTER THOUGH,
WITH LATEST PROJECTIONS BETWEEN 5.5-6.5 C/KM. THESE CONDITIONS
COULD SUPPORT PULSE LIKE OR LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. THIS WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HIGH
PWATS WILL ALSO POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN REPEATED STORM ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAIN LOW GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND LIMITED SHEAR.
TIMING OF HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO FAVOR LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS INITIAL COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH. A
SECONDARY ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS POSSIBLE WEST OF
I-65 DEPENDING ON OUTLFOW EVOLUTION, BUT THIS REMAINS LOWER
CONFIDENCE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST.
BY TUESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT, ALLOWING DRIER AND
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND PLEASANT OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, PROMOTING A STRETCH OF MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW 80S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WILL BE A NICE BREAK FROM RECENT WET
AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK,
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN GRADUALLY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RESUMES, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SOME UNCERTAINTIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO TS, MAINLY FOR
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE'S A SIGNAL FOR A
CLUSTER OF STORMS TO IMPACT CKV, BNA, AND MQY IN THE MORNING, SO
KEPT PROB30 FOR NOW. AFTERNOON POTENTIAL WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON
HOW MORNING ACTIVITY EVOLVES.
OTHERWISE, WE HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT CKV AND BNA CURRENTLY
WITH LINGERING -RA AT MQY. SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF
BNA, BUT NOTHING IN VICINITY AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT IFR AT SRB
AND CSV DUE TO LOW CIG/VIS IS MORE LIKELY THANKS TO RECENT
RAINFALL. KEPT BR MENTIONED AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT THESE SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 66 84 63 / 50 20 70 40
CLARKSVILLE 87 65 83 61 / 30 10 90 40
CROSSVILLE 75 61 79 57 / 60 40 50 20
COLUMBIA 86 65 84 63 / 70 20 70 40
COOKEVILLE 80 63 81 59 / 60 30 60 30
JAMESTOWN 79 60 80 55 / 60 30 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 85 64 82 63 / 80 20 70 30
MURFREESBORO 86 64 84 63 / 70 20 70 40
WAVERLY 86 66 84 63 / 40 10 90 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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