806
FXUS64 KOHX 151558
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1058 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A LOW
RAIN CHANCE NORTH OF I-40 LATE TUESDAY.
- HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN IS LOW.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO NEAR 80 UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-
50S. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
TUESDAY, HELPING TO TREND TEMPERATURES UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID-80S. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY, BUT THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA. WHILE THE BULK OF
THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE TO OUR
NORTH, THERE DOES REMAIN A LOW (15-25%) CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER
OR STORM MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE UPPER-80S TO NEAR 90. MOST OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, BUT THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT. HIGH
RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. WE
ARE CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW. BETTER SHEAR IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED AS PWATS RISE TO
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE). BUT
THERE IS A FRONT WHICH HELPS TO GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.
DRIER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SATURDAY
LOOKING LIKE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-70S TO MID-80S.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGS MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
PATCHY FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT SRB THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 80 61 85 66 / 0 0 0 20
CLARKSVILLE 78 57 84 64 / 0 0 0 20
CROSSVILLE 75 54 77 59 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 80 59 84 65 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 76 56 79 62 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 75 53 79 60 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 79 59 81 64 / 0 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 81 59 84 65 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 79 59 83 65 / 0 0 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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