086
FXUS64 KOHX 161121
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- THERE ARE HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A LOW THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE MID STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING, AND THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SPLENDID.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WE'VE TODAY AND TOMORROW TO ENJOY THE SUNSHINE BEFORE THE NEXT
ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND STORMS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THESE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, THEN ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
AT THIS TIME, THE MID STATE IS UNDER A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 1 OR 2 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY, MAINLY NORTH
OF I-40, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING, AND THAT WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR A
PLEASANT SATURDAY WEATHERWISE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, MOST OF THE WX ACTION WILL OCCUR
TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. LOOKING NORTH, A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS WILL BRING A SEVERE STORM RISK ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
AND OHIO VALLEY. TO OUR SOUTH, A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TAP
INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-20. HERE IN MIDDLE TN, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB ABOUT 5 DEGREES
EACH DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH MAY PUSH
A BOUNDARY DOWN OUR WAY WITH A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY, BUT FOR
THE MOST PART, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WET WX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME,
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF WILL CREEP NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING A SOAKING,
AND PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS
A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. CERTAINLY,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. WE ARE NOT UNDER
A SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS MAY HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE KICKS OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 86 66 91 76 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 84 64 89 76 / 0 10 0 30
CROSSVILLE 78 59 83 70 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBIA 85 64 90 74 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 80 61 85 72 / 0 0 0 20
JAMESTOWN 79 59 85 70 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 82 64 87 73 / 0 0 10 20
MURFREESBORO 85 64 90 75 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 84 64 89 75 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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