964
FXUS64 KOHX 161605
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1105 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1051 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- THERE ARE HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A LOW THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE MID STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING, AND THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SPLENDID.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND
COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IS IN STORE FOR
OUR REGION TODAY. THE SYSTEM BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR
NORTH AND THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH CAUSING HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL NOT IMPACT US, THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY ROLL IN
TONIGHT IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS A BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH.
TOMORROW, UNFORTUNATELY, BRINGS THE END OF OUR SHORT-LIVED RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. AS ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY, HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN OUR AREA,
MEANING HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THURSDAY IS WHEN WE WILL SEE THE END OF THE DRY WEATHER WE HAVE
SEEN AND THE DISCUSSION OF THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY WITH THIS
FORECAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BEGINS. AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE CENTER PASSES FAR NORTH OF US IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED INTO OUR REGION
AND WILL BE COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM OUR
NORTHWEST, PROVIDING THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, THOUGH THE PRIMARY WINDOW APPEARS TO BE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT
ARE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN REGION OF THE
GULF ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE LATEST MODELS RUNS SUGGEST
THAT THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH, THOUGH THERE IS A 20 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL
TOTALS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES BACK OFF SOME ON TUESDAY, THOUGH THE WET PATTERN
LOOKS TO HOLD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 86 65 91 76 / 0 0 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 84 64 90 76 / 0 10 0 30
CROSSVILLE 78 58 84 70 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBIA 85 64 90 75 / 0 10 0 20
COOKEVILLE 80 61 86 73 / 0 0 0 30
JAMESTOWN 79 59 86 71 / 0 0 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 82 63 86 73 / 0 10 0 20
MURFREESBORO 85 63 90 75 / 0 0 0 20
WAVERLY 84 64 89 75 / 0 10 0 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS/SEIDER
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS/SEIDER
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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