794
FXUS64 KOHX 170330
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1030 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A LOW THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE MID STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING, AND THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SPLENDID.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE SEASONALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WE HAVE ENJOYED THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL SLIP AWAY WEDNESDAY AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CREEP
HIGHER. BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING THESE CHANGES. ACTIVE WX SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT AREAS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH AS WE STAY DRY ONE MORE
DAY. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM BRINGS HEAVY TROPICAL RAINFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL EVENTUALLY PUT THE SQUEEZE ON MIDDLE TN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TRAILING FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE TROPICAL AIR MASS OOZING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED IN SOME
SIGNIFICANT WAYS. AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL HAS DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
WITH LATEST MODELS SHOWING LESS THAN HALF THE RAINFALL THEY
SHOWED 24 HOURS AGO. BUT, WITH LESS RAIN COVERAGE, THE DOOR HAS
OPENED FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND A NOTABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, WE
CANNOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD TOTALS HAVE TRENDED LOWER, THE
MOISTURE LADED ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS DEEP
CONVECTION COULD BRING VERY HEAVY LOCALIZED TOTALS, RESULTING IN
BRIEF FLASH FLOODING. TO CLARIFY, THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME, BUT WE ARE UNDER A WPC
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
RAIN AND SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, LIKELY PASSING EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER TREND
ON THE MODELS HAS BEEN A FASTER TRANSITION INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. SO, RATHER THAN AN ENTIRELY DRY WEEKEND, WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY SUNDAY. OVERALL,
THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES BRINGING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OTHERWISE, TYPICAL JUNE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME GUSTY TO 25KT FROM THE SSW AFTER
15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 65 91 76 90 / 0 0 30 90
CLARKSVILLE 64 90 76 88 / 10 0 30 90
CROSSVILLE 58 84 70 82 / 0 0 30 80
COLUMBIA 64 90 75 88 / 10 0 20 80
COOKEVILLE 61 86 73 84 / 0 0 30 80
JAMESTOWN 59 86 71 84 / 0 0 30 80
LAWRENCEBURG 63 87 73 85 / 10 0 20 80
MURFREESBORO 63 90 75 89 / 0 0 20 80
WAVERLY 64 89 75 87 / 10 0 30 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....13
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