286
FXUS64 KOHX 170709
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
209 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 203 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- LOOK FOR A WARM, DRY WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE MID STATE ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (MOSTLY A LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY, FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
SUGGEST A SPLENDID SATURDAY, BUT RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE NEW DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY PULLS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA BACK JUST A LITTLE, BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
THE SPC CONTINUES TO FOCUS SOLELY ON A WIND THREAT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THE TORNADO THREAT STAYS TO OUR SOUTH. THE 00Z HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT PEAK TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA IS GOING TO
RUN FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE FORECAST
SOUNDING FOR BNA VALID FOR THURSDAY AT 5 P.M. DOES SHOW GOOD
INSTABILITY, BUT MORE OF A TALL, THIN CAPE THAT DEFINITELY WOULD
NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
MINIMAL. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREN'T EXCESSIVELY STEEP. AND THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER SUGGESTED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDING WOULD BE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. SO I'D HAVE TO SAY
THAT ALL WE CAN EXPECT FROM TOMORROW'S STORMS WOULD BE AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME MINOR FLOODING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE SEASONALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WE HAVE ENJOYED THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL SLIP AWAY WEDNESDAY AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CREEP
HIGHER. BACKING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING THESE CHANGES. ACTIVE WX SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT AREAS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH AS WE STAY DRY ONE MORE
DAY. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM BRINGS HEAVY TROPICAL RAINFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL EVENTUALLY PUT THE SQUEEZE ON MIDDLE TN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TRAILING FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE TROPICAL AIR MASS OOZING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED IN SOME
SIGNIFICANT WAYS. AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL HAS DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
WITH LATEST MODELS SHOWING LESS THAN HALF THE RAINFALL THEY
SHOWED 24 HOURS AGO. BUT, WITH LESS RAIN COVERAGE, THE DOOR HAS
OPENED FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND A NOTABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, WE
CANNOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD TOTALS HAVE TRENDED LOWER, THE
MOISTURE LADED ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS DEEP
CONVECTION COULD BRING VERY HEAVY LOCALIZED TOTALS, RESULTING IN
BRIEF FLASH FLOODING. TO CLARIFY, THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME, BUT WE ARE UNDER A WPC
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
RAIN AND SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, LIKELY PASSING EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER TREND
ON THE MODELS HAS BEEN A FASTER TRANSITION INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. SO, RATHER THAN AN ENTIRELY DRY WEEKEND, WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY SUNDAY. OVERALL,
THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES BRINGING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OTHERWISE, TYPICAL JUNE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TAFS ARE VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS. A SURFACE RIDGE NOW SITUATED TO OUR
EAST WILL PULL FARTHER AWAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTHWEST. SO WE CAN EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 76 89 69 / 0 10 80 80
CLARKSVILLE 90 75 88 67 / 0 20 70 60
CROSSVILLE 84 70 81 65 / 0 10 80 80
COLUMBIA 90 74 87 69 / 0 10 80 70
COOKEVILLE 86 72 83 67 / 0 10 90 80
JAMESTOWN 86 71 83 64 / 0 10 90 80
LAWRENCEBURG 87 73 84 68 / 0 20 80 70
MURFREESBORO 90 75 88 69 / 0 10 90 70
WAVERLY 89 74 87 67 / 0 10 80 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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