790
FXUS64 KOHX 181139
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
639 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING.
- DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT HIGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH ON AND OFF
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
WEDNESDAY'S GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BROUGHT VERY WARM, MUGGY CONDITIONS
INTO THE MID STATE, AND THE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL COME
TOGETHER TO BRING A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE REMAIN UNDER A LOW-END
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A LOW-END RISK
FOR LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODEL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THESE SYSTEMS, AND AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO VERY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING US DRY CONDITIONS FOR DAYTIME FRIDAY
AND A VERY NICE, COMFORTABLE FRIDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD DAY. IT WILL BE WARM BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD STAY TOLERABLE. RETURN FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
QUICKLY, SO A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
THERE ARE A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, BUT
IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. AFTER MONDAY, ON AND
OFF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING TYPICAL JUNE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO NEAR
90.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING IS A SCT TO BKN STRATUS DECK THAT WILL
KEEP MVFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 16Z WITH A MORE UNCERTAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON, THE UNCERTAINTY BEING WHERE
EXACTLY STORMS WILL INITIATE. THE FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE
THROUGH MIDDLE TN AFTER ~01Z AT WHICH TIME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
SW WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED 10-12 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 68 85 64 / 90 70 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 87 64 84 61 / 90 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 82 65 80 58 / 80 60 0 0
COLUMBIA 87 68 85 62 / 70 60 10 0
COOKEVILLE 84 66 81 59 / 90 60 0 0
JAMESTOWN 84 64 80 57 / 90 70 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 84 68 84 62 / 70 50 10 0
MURFREESBORO 87 69 86 62 / 90 70 0 0
WAVERLY 86 66 84 63 / 90 40 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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