857
FXUS64 KOHX 181655
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING.
- DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT HIGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH ON AND OFF
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SHOWERS HAVE STARTED BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR
OUT AHEAD OF 2 SEPARATE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL MOVE OVER
LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WE'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS NORTH AL/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THERE IS VERY DEEP MOISTURE
MOVING IN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 2" THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTH TODAY. MOISTURE PROFILE THIS DEEP
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO WATER-
LOADED DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF OUR CWA, A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, PUSHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL COLLIDE WITH THE TROPICAL BOUNDARY, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE REMAINS A LOW THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MLCAPE WILL REACH INTO THE 2000S THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH LAPSE RATES OVERALL ARE RATHER LOW, AROUND 6
C/KM OR LESS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ALSO ON THE LOWER SIDE, AROUND
25 KTS, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE, GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE,
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL HELP BRING SOME OF THAT WIND TO THE
SURFACE AS DCAPE VALUES CREEP NEAR 1000 J/KG. DON'T LET YOUR GUARD
DOWN WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING TODAY. WITH HIGH PWATS MOVING IN,
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS,
SO KEEP YOUR GUARD UP FOR QUICK FLOODING TO DEVELOP IF YOU GET
CAUGHT UNDER A STORM.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL RELAX AND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH, BRINGING A TEMPORARY BOUT OF DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING THROUGH MIDDLE TN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE RETURN OF HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, GREATER THAN A
70% CHANCE. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT BUMP IN SHEAR VALUES AGAIN WITH
THIS WAVE, BETWEEN 25-30 KTS, SO A FEW GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUED ON AND OFF RAIN/STORM CHANCES WITH A
FOCUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE LOW
80S TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING IS A SCT TO BKN STRATUS DECK THAT WILL
KEEP MVFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 16Z WITH A MORE UNCERTAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON, THE UNCERTAINTY BEING WHERE
EXACTLY STORMS WILL INITIATE. THE FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE
THROUGH MIDDLE TN AFTER ~01Z AT WHICH TIME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
SW WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED 10-12 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 68 84 64 / 90 60 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 87 64 83 61 / 80 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 82 65 79 57 / 80 50 0 0
COLUMBIA 87 68 84 61 / 70 40 0 0
COOKEVILLE 84 66 81 59 / 90 50 0 0
JAMESTOWN 84 64 80 57 / 90 70 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 84 68 83 61 / 70 30 0 0
MURFREESBORO 87 68 85 61 / 90 50 0 0
WAVERLY 86 65 83 62 / 90 40 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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