847
FXUS64 KOHX 200400
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- DRY AND WARM SATURDAY.
- HIGH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AFTER A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
OUR WX DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN FRIDAY, BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY TOLERABLE.
THAT WILL CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ZIPS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THAT WILL
HELP LIFT HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA. AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TN.
1000+ CAPE AND 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL HAZARD, BUT
PARAMETERS INDICATE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WX INCLUDING ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A FRONT TRAILING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND STALLS OUT OVER THE TN
VALLEY TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LITTLE WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE WITH EPISODES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW DIURNALLY STRONG STORMS COULD
OCCUR, BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE APPARENT AFTER MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME E TO SE DAYTIME SATURDAY WITH
FEW/SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS. NO RAIN/STORMS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT SRB AND CSV TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 88 68 88 / 0 0 10 70
CLARKSVILLE 61 87 67 87 / 0 0 10 70
CROSSVILLE 57 83 62 83 / 0 0 10 60
COLUMBIA 61 86 68 88 / 0 10 10 70
COOKEVILLE 59 84 64 85 / 0 0 10 60
JAMESTOWN 57 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 60
LAWRENCEBURG 61 85 67 85 / 0 10 10 70
MURFREESBORO 61 88 67 89 / 0 0 10 70
WAVERLY 62 86 68 87 / 0 0 10 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....13
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