621
FXUS64 KOHX 201120
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 603 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- DRY AND WARM SATURDAY.
- HIGH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AFTER A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
OUR WX DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN FRIDAY, BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY TOLERABLE.
THAT WILL CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ZIPS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THAT WILL
HELP LIFT HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA. AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TN.
1000+ CAPE AND 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL HAZARD, BUT
PARAMETERS INDICATE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WX INCLUDING ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A FRONT TRAILING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND STALLS OUT OVER THE TN
VALLEY TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LITTLE WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE WITH EPISODES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW DIURNALLY STRONG STORMS COULD
OCCUR, BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE APPARENT AFTER MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY NOON.
CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH WITH SOME DIURNAL CU POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT FOR SRB AND CKV, SO THAT TREND WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 68 90 74 / 0 0 50 80
CLARKSVILLE 88 67 89 73 / 0 0 50 90
CROSSVILLE 82 62 84 69 / 0 0 30 80
COLUMBIA 87 67 89 73 / 10 10 40 70
COOKEVILLE 84 63 86 71 / 0 0 40 80
JAMESTOWN 83 61 86 69 / 0 0 40 80
LAWRENCEBURG 84 66 87 72 / 10 0 50 70
MURFREESBORO 88 67 90 73 / 0 0 40 80
WAVERLY 87 68 88 72 / 0 0 50 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....05
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