854
FXUS64 KOHX 210020
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
720 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 711 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- HIGH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
CALM CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP OVER THE REGION AND THAT
WILL BRING ANOTHER QUIET DAY TO MIDDLE TN. A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BRING MORE CLOUD COVER TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH
A VERY LOW SHOWER CHANCE, OTHER AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. WE
SHOULD BE WELL MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON MIXING TO 5000+ FEET, THIS
WILL LOWER OUR DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
AREAS. WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS WE WILL SEE WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS AS
THEY PUSH INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND THAT WILL START TO PUSH A MORE HUMID AIR
MASS IN WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
SUNDAY MID-MORNING. THE HUMIDITY WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT WARMER
TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BUT ALL AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE
60S.
OUR WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TRACKS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PUSHES INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
CAPE WILL INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BULK
SHEAR 20-30 KNOTS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER POOR AND WE WILL
LACK FORCING, THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE RISK VERY LOW WITH
ANYTHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
BACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING INTO THE OH VALLEY PUSHING
A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARDS MIDDLE TN. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR WEST AND AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER IL
AND PUSH EAST THROUGH KY AND IN. THAT DOES LOOK TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LOOK TO MAKE
IT TO OUR NORTHWEST AFTER 12-3 AM. A 30-40 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR 0-3 KM HELICITY TO 150-250. CAPE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND BULK SHEAR WILL STAY IN THE 20-30 KNOTS RANGE. GIVEN THE
BETTER FORCING WE WILL SEE A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP AND LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW, THAT WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT
VERY LOW DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CAPE WE SEE
BUILD IN ON MONDAY BUT PROBABILITY ARE HIGH FOR AT LEAST 1000
J/KG. LAPSE RATES STILL DON'T LOOK GREAT BUT BULK SHEAR WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20-30 KNOTS RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS, WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT WE DO SEE
A LITTLE MORE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. PWATS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH NEAR 2.0" IN
SOME AREAS AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT GIVEN THE
PWATS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE MID 80S BUT IT WILL BE VERY HUMID AS DEW POINTS
PUSH WELL INTO THE MID 70S.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE TN/AL
BOARDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THAT WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN.
THAT WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 91 74 85 / 0 10 50 80
CLARKSVILLE 66 90 73 83 / 0 10 80 80
CROSSVILLE 61 85 69 80 / 0 10 50 90
COLUMBIA 66 90 73 85 / 0 20 50 80
COOKEVILLE 63 87 71 81 / 0 10 50 90
JAMESTOWN 60 87 69 81 / 0 10 40 90
LAWRENCEBURG 66 87 72 84 / 0 10 50 90
MURFREESBORO 66 91 73 86 / 0 10 50 90
WAVERLY 67 89 72 82 / 0 10 70 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT/CAPOUCH
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT/CAPOUCH
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