472
FXUS64 KOHX 211120
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 603 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE
IS A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY
WILL BRING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 90S. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE, AROUND 10% OR LESS, FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
THIS SHORTWAVE, ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW, WILL BEGIN TRACKING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT, PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARDS
MIDDLE TN. TO THE WEST, CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AND AN MCS WILL DEVELOP
OVER IL AND PUSH EAST THROUGH KY AND IN, LIKELY STICKING TO OUR
NORTH. BETWEEN 12-3 AM, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TN. A
30-40 KNOT 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, PUSHING 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES TO 150-250. ELEVATED
CAPE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG, ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS.
ACKNOWLEDGING THE FORCING PRESENT, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WEAK CAP, HOWEVER THIS CAP COULD BE SURPASSED
GIVEN SUFFICIENT FORCING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE BETWEEN 6
TO 6.5 C/KM, SO NOT GREAT, BUT WILL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
IN PLACE, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, HOWEVER
SINCE WE WILL SEE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL HELICITY VALUES, THERE
WILL ALSO BE A LOW TORNADO THREAT.
THROUGH MONDAY, THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH
MIDDLE TN. LAPSE RATES WILL FALL NEAR 5.5 C/KM, LARGELY LIMITING
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THAT, CAPE VALUES
WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. WITH REGARDS TO A FLOODING
THREAT, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS PWAT VALUES
SURGE BEYOND 2", NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS PUSHING INTO THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SETUP NEAR THE TN/AL BORDER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20% THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY, BRINGING A HIGHER, MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN AND
STORMS WITH CHANCES BETWEEN 35-50%.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AFTER 18Z. ANY LINGERING
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT CKV AND SRB WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY. BETWEEN
18Z AND 00Z EXPECT A GRADUAL THICKENING AND LOWER OF CLOUDS, WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 00Z FROM
NORTHWEST TO THE EASTERN TAF SITES. FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT BNA, TSRA COVERAGE MAY BE MORE PROMINENT AFTER
ABOUT 10Z WITH IFR VIS AND CIGS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 74 84 67 / 10 60 90 50
CLARKSVILLE 90 73 83 65 / 10 80 90 30
CROSSVILLE 85 68 79 63 / 10 50 90 70
COLUMBIA 90 72 84 66 / 10 70 90 60
COOKEVILLE 87 70 80 64 / 0 60 90 70
JAMESTOWN 87 68 80 62 / 0 50 90 70
LAWRENCEBURG 87 71 83 66 / 10 70 90 70
MURFREESBORO 91 73 85 66 / 10 60 90 60
WAVERLY 89 71 82 64 / 10 70 90 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ024-
056>058-060-061-075-077-093>095.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....05
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