707
FXUS64 KOHX 212359
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 654 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE
IS A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE TN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE ARE
MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI. CAMS CONTINUE TO HOLD THIS
CONVECTION TOGETHER, PUSHING A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT, WE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM CAMS AND MONITORING RADAR
TRENDS TO SEE HOW THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND WHAT DIRECTION IT
DECIDES TO TAKE. SHOULD IT HOLD AND TRAVERSE MIDDLE TN, TIMING
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12AM-4AM, MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A CAP ALOFT AROUND 800MB WITH INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN 800-1000 J/KG. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY HIGHER TONIGHT,
EVENTUALLY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 1000S. BULK SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY AROUND 25 KTS, INCREASING TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW RIGHT NOW, BUT
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO OVER 150 OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND THAT VALUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT.
BEFORE YOU WIND DOWN TONIGHT, MAKE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS THAT WILL WAKE YOU UP JUST IN CASE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND THIS WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MIDDLE TN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED A HUMID AIR MASS BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS BACK IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING TO OUR
NORTH. FOG THIS MORNING HAS LIFTING INTO A STRATUS LAYER BUT WE
SHOULD SEE THAT BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN WE
WILL SEE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. CAPE
WILL INCREASE TO 1000+ J/KG BY THE EVENING. WE WILL LACK FORCING
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT NEAR
ZERO. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MAKE IT IN TO MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH THIS
EVENING WITH AN MCS LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER IL AND PUSHING EAST.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT WE WILL SEE A LINE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OUTRUN THE COLD FRONT. THEY LOOK TO MAKE
IT TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA BETWEEN 11 PM AND 2 AM AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST REACHING THE NASHVILLE AREA
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM. CAPE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED 1000+ J/KG DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
BUT WILL FALL OF TO AROUND 600 J/KG AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS NASHVILLE.
BULK SHEAR WILL BE 25-35 KNOTS AND WE WILL SEE A 25-35 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING 0-3 KM
HELICITY TO 200-300. THIS INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET AND ELEVATED
HELICITY WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST
A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP THE PRIMARY THREAT TO STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONG STORMS BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
THE LINE WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS FORCING AS IT STARTS TO PUSH INTO
THE NASHVILLE AREA AND THAT WILL LEAD TO IT BECOMING MORE BROKEN
AND A WEAKENING TREND.
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NASHVILLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF IT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY AND THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE HOW MUCH CAPE DO WE SEE BUILD IN. THE 12Z
HREF HAS AN ALMOST 1000 J/KG DIFFERENCE IN CAPE FROM THE 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILE. THAT EQUATES TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG UP TO 1500+
J/KG. BULK SHEAR WILL COME DOWN SOME BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE
20-30 KNOT RANGE, LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR. GIVEN ALL OF THIS
THE SEVERE THREAT DOESN'T LOOK GREAT BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
STRONGER STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
PWATS WILL BE VERY HIGH PUSHING TO NEAR 2.0", THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LOW BUT THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND AREAS COULD SEE A QUICK 1-1.50" OF
RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT BUT OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING MUCH WITH IT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
IT WILL STALL OUT RIGHT ALONG THE TN/AL BOARDER AND THAT WILL KEEP
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS BUILD IN LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. FLOW WILL TURN ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND SOME SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S TO START OFF THE
WEEK BUT WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND SOME 90S WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
TAFS & CURRENT OBS ARE VFR ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH S TO SSW
WINDS 5-10 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS. THIS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING.
TROUBLE STARTS OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA
AFTER ~06Z, SO IMPACTS AT CKV ARE EXPECTED FIRST THEN DOWN TOWARD
BNA AND MQY THEREAFTER. EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN, SO PROB30S REMAIN IN THE TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY WORK IN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL WITH
LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, BUT BEST CHANCES WOULD BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FAVOR SRB AND CSV AT THIS TIME.
WINDS VEER TO A NW DIRECTION TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED GUSTS AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR CIGS WITH AFTERNOON MIXING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 84 66 83 / 70 90 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 83 64 83 / 80 90 10 0
CROSSVILLE 68 79 62 78 / 80 100 60 20
COLUMBIA 73 84 65 84 / 70 90 50 20
COOKEVILLE 70 80 63 80 / 80 100 50 20
JAMESTOWN 68 80 61 79 / 70 100 50 20
LAWRENCEBURG 72 82 65 82 / 70 100 60 20
MURFREESBORO 73 84 65 84 / 70 100 50 10
WAVERLY 71 82 63 83 / 70 90 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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