178
FXUS64 KOHX 220432
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1132 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- THERE IS A VERY LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT. STRONG
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL LOW SEVERE THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU. STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN.
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN
A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF THIS ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONGEAL INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE OUTFLOW OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
CONTINUES TO DROP. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS TRACKING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY JUST TO OUR WEST
OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID, A FEW SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE JUST MIGHT MISS THE BRUNT OF
THIS INITIAL WAVE. TONIGHT'S 00Z BALLOON REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL
CAP IN PLACE AT 800MB WHICH WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. WE HAVE SEEN A BUMP IN BULK SHEAR, NOW UP
TO 35 KTS AND LOW-LEVEL HELICITY IS AROUND 140, BUT IT WILL TAKE A
GOOD DEAL OF FORCING TO BREAK THAT CAP, AND CONFIDENCE ON THAT
HAPPENING IS LOW. REGARDLESS, IT STILL DOESN'T HURT TO MAKE SURE
YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS THAT WILL WAKE YOU UP
JUST TO BE SAFE.
MOVING INTO MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY, DRAWING UP AN ABUNDANCE OF RICH MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES OVER 2", NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH, AND THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL
OUT NEAR THE TN/AL BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
POINT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ON DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAMS ARE
BRINGING A REMNANT MCV THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT WOULD
BRING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE VERY SATURATED GIVEN THE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE, AND SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. LAPSE
RATES REMAIN BETWEEN 6-6.5 C/KM, BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 25-30 KTS, AND
HELICITIES DROP BELOW 100. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BIGGEST
PARAMETER IN QUESTION AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RECOVERY TIME
THERE WILL BE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 00Z HREF GIVES THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF 1000 J/KG OR GREATER GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
NASHVILLE WITH CHANCES BETWEEN 60-70%. SHOULD STORMS TAP INTO
GREATER INSTABILITY, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT USHERS
THROUGH. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOP TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST,
PLACING A MORE ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
KEEPING LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL TREK EAST THIS WEEK, AND
WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, BUT BY THIS
WEEKEND, WE WILL START PUSHING INTO THE 90S. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BE CENTERED SMACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK,
KEEPING THINGS HOT AND DRY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
TAFS & CURRENT OBS ARE VFR ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH S TO SSW
WINDS 5-10 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS. THIS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING.
TROUBLE STARTS OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA
AFTER ~06Z, SO IMPACTS AT CKV ARE EXPECTED FIRST THEN DOWN TOWARD
BNA AND MQY THEREAFTER. EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN, SO PROB30S REMAIN IN THE TAF FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY WORK IN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL WITH
LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, BUT BEST CHANCES WOULD BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY FAVOR SRB AND CSV AT THIS TIME.
WINDS VEER TO A NW DIRECTION TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED GUSTS AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR CIGS WITH AFTERNOON MIXING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 74 84 65 83 / 70 80 30 0
CLARKSVILLE 73 82 63 83 / 80 80 10 0
CROSSVILLE 68 78 61 78 / 70 90 60 10
COLUMBIA 73 83 64 83 / 70 90 40 10
COOKEVILLE 70 80 62 79 / 70 100 50 10
JAMESTOWN 68 79 60 79 / 70 90 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 72 82 64 82 / 70 90 50 10
MURFREESBORO 73 84 64 83 / 70 90 50 10
WAVERLY 71 81 63 82 / 60 80 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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