639
FXUS64 KOHX 051642
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND ISOLATED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
- TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP MESOANALYSIS DEPICT A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG WITH TWO OR THREE
EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA/MCV FEATURES IN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
MOVING EAST. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL HELP INFLUENCE INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY WITH UNSTABLE, MOIST AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THERE'S ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
TO HELP ORGANIZE STORMS INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS
ALONG COLD POOLING. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS/CORES ALOFT. THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO POSE A
THREAT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING
STORMS DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES. HIGH PWS ARE IN THE AREA,
GENERALLY 1.7" TO 2.0", NEAR AND EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN OUR REGION TOMORROW WITH
PERHAPS MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR WEST. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING ALOFT AND MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED DAYTIME
CONVECTION. THERE'S NO OBVIOUS SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT ANY
MORE ROBUST STORM COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, JUST AS TODAY. HEAT/HUMIDITY ARE BACK DOWN
INTO "TOLERABLE" LEVELS FOR SUMMERTIME TODAY AND TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST THAT WILL PERSIST INTO
MID WEEK WITH SOMEWHAT STEADY, PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. THANKFULLY IT APPEARS SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, SO OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE MID WEEK. RAN/STORM CHANCE INCREASE AGAIN
LATE WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCES/WEAK SURFACE FRONTS APPROACH
THE REGION IN THE LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KBNA AND KMQY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z SO INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR NOW.
KCSV, KCKV, AND KSRB: DEALING WITH SOME BCFG AND BR THIS MORNING
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR BUT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY
14Z. ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN PINPOINTING ANY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TSRA SO CONTINUED A PROB30 AS WELL FOR 22Z-03Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 92 72 88 71 / 70 50 50 20
CLARKSVILLE 91 71 87 70 / 40 40 30 20
CROSSVILLE 87 67 84 66 / 70 20 70 30
COLUMBIA 92 70 88 69 / 60 50 60 20
COOKEVILLE 88 69 85 68 / 60 30 70 20
JAMESTOWN 87 67 84 66 / 50 20 70 30
LAWRENCEBURG 90 69 86 68 / 70 40 60 20
MURFREESBORO 93 71 89 70 / 70 30 60 30
WAVERLY 91 69 86 69 / 50 50 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....HURLEY
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