874
FXUS64 KOHX 060428
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1112 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- EXPECT VERY LITTLE RADAR ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
BUT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OWING TO A WET
GROUND, LIGHT WIND AND NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT SPREADS.
- TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NO HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
- DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DIED OFF AND VERY LITTLE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
RAIN AND STORMS WILL PICK BACK UP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, MAINLY
IN AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF NASHVILLE, BUT THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE, BUT THERE IS A GREAT DEAL
LESS CONVECTION OCCURRING NOW THAN 24 HRS. AGO DUE TO THE
POSITIONING OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS ALREADY MOST OF THE WAY
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SO THERE IS MUCH LESS FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE CELLS THAT ARE STILL OCCURRING SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE, LEAVING US WITH A HUMID NIGHT AND PLENTY OF RADIATION
FOG LATER ON, BUT REALLY NO APPRECIABLE RADAR ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WHILE RADAR ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY AT A NADIR, WE CAN EXPECT RADIATION FOG ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, AND
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST, AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
STILL PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WE CAN EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES. FORTUNATELY, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
VERY LOW. THERE JUST ISN'T ENOUGH FORCING, DESPITE THE LINGERING
INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE WEATHER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK IS "UNSETTLED." WE AREN'T IN OUR TRADITIONAL BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN, AND DON'T SEE THIS COMMON WARM-SEASON FEATURE
REDEVELOPING ANYTIME SOON. RATHER, WE CAN EXPECT A SERIES OF
UPPER TROUGHS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING IN COMING DAYS TO ENABLE HEAT-DRIVEN CONVECTION
MOST AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD
WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. AND WHILE WE CAN EXPECT
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY, THERE WON'T BE ANY NEED FOR HEAT-
RELATED HEADLINES FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND EVEN IFR FOG COULD IMPACT TERMINALS BEFORE
12Z. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION
IS LOW ATTM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 89 72 88 / 40 60 30 50
CLARKSVILLE 71 87 71 88 / 70 60 20 50
CROSSVILLE 67 84 67 83 / 20 80 30 60
COLUMBIA 70 88 69 88 / 50 60 20 40
COOKEVILLE 69 85 69 85 / 20 70 40 60
JAMESTOWN 67 85 67 84 / 20 70 40 70
LAWRENCEBURG 69 86 69 87 / 30 60 20 40
MURFREESBORO 71 89 70 89 / 20 60 30 50
WAVERLY 69 86 70 87 / 70 60 20 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....BARNWELL
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