581
FXUS64 KOHX 060517
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1217 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- EXPECT VERY LITTLE RADAR ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
BUT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OWING TO A WET
GROUND, LIGHT WIND AND NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT SPREADS.
- TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NO HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
- DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DIED OFF AND VERY LITTLE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
RAIN AND STORMS WILL PICK BACK UP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, MAINLY
IN AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF NASHVILLE, BUT THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE, BUT THERE IS A GREAT DEAL
LESS CONVECTION OCCURRING NOW THAN 24 HRS. AGO DUE TO THE
POSITIONING OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS ALREADY MOST OF THE WAY
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SO THERE IS MUCH LESS FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE CELLS THAT ARE STILL OCCURRING SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE, LEAVING US WITH A HUMID NIGHT AND PLENTY OF RADIATION
FOG LATER ON, BUT REALLY NO APPRECIABLE RADAR ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WHILE RADAR ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY AT A NADIR, WE CAN EXPECT RADIATION FOG ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, AND
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST, AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
STILL PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WE CAN EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES. FORTUNATELY, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
VERY LOW. THERE JUST ISN'T ENOUGH FORCING, DESPITE THE LINGERING
INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE WEATHER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK IS "UNSETTLED." WE AREN'T IN OUR TRADITIONAL BERMUDA HIGH
PATTERN, AND DON'T SEE THIS COMMON WARM-SEASON FEATURE
REDEVELOPING ANYTIME SOON. RATHER, WE CAN EXPECT A SERIES OF
UPPER TROUGHS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING IN COMING DAYS TO ENABLE HEAT-DRIVEN CONVECTION
MOST AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD
WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. AND WHILE WE CAN EXPECT
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY, THERE WON'T BE ANY NEED FOR HEAT-
RELATED HEADLINES FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE
CITY OF NASHVILLE. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 12Z. THEN WE WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 19Z. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 89 72 88 73 / 60 30 50 20
CLARKSVILLE 87 71 88 71 / 60 20 50 10
CROSSVILLE 84 67 83 67 / 80 30 60 10
COLUMBIA 88 69 88 70 / 60 20 40 10
COOKEVILLE 85 69 85 69 / 70 40 60 20
JAMESTOWN 85 67 84 67 / 70 40 70 20
LAWRENCEBURG 86 69 87 70 / 60 20 40 10
MURFREESBORO 89 70 89 71 / 60 30 50 10
WAVERLY 86 70 87 70 / 60 20 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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