825
FXUS64 KOHX 061708
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1208 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. NO HEAT HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT HEAT INDICES
NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK.
- DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW,
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
WE HAVE QUITE THE MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY.
OUR MORNING RAOB WAS VERY TROPICAL-LIKE WITH POOR LAPSE RATES BUT
MEDIUM-HIGH SATURATION THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. THE PW WAS 1.85"
WHICH RUNS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND THE LINGERING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. GIVEN LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR
AND MORE NARROW CAPE PROFILES, STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
ON A DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY. FOR TOMORROW, OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY A "COPY AND PASTE" FROM TODAY, WITH MOST
PARAMETERS NOT CHANGING MUCH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LINGERING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
GUIDANCE HAD PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED A BIT OF A BREAK IN OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT POPS HAVE
INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ASSESSING LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO LEAVE THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP INFLUENCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. PERHAPS THURSDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A
DECREASE AS WE TRANSITION TO THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE.
ONCE WE GET INTO LATE WEEK THE OVERALL PATTERN SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY
ZONAL. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ALONG WITH A
MEANDERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP INFLUENCE
DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES GIVEN WE'LL REMAIN IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
IMPACT TERMINALS BRIEFLY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30KT WILL BE COMMON
WITH THE STORMS. OVERNIGHT, AREAS OF MIST AND PATCHY FOG WILL
FORM WITH MOST SITES DROPPING TO MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AGAIN TO VFR BY 14Z. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWS A REPEAT PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 89 72 88 72 / 60 40 60 20
CLARKSVILLE 87 70 87 70 / 60 30 60 20
CROSSVILLE 84 66 82 66 / 80 30 60 20
COLUMBIA 88 69 87 69 / 80 30 50 20
COOKEVILLE 85 68 83 68 / 70 50 60 20
JAMESTOWN 85 66 82 66 / 70 40 60 30
LAWRENCEBURG 86 68 86 68 / 70 20 50 20
MURFREESBORO 89 70 88 70 / 60 40 60 20
WAVERLY 86 69 86 69 / 70 30 60 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....13
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