561
FXUS64 KOHX 070409
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1109 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES LIKELY OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS.
- TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK.
- DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW,
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGER SLOWER MOVING STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
A FEW SHOWERS ARE HOLDING STRONG TONIGHT AS THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE OUT THERE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT, THE 00Z BNA SOUNDING
CAME IN WITH A PW OF 2.00IN! THIS SOUPY ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW, THESE
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE PREVENTING THE FOG FROM
DEVELOPING, BUT ONCE THOSE GO AWAY, SOME LOCATIONS COULD REALLY
DROP IN VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT OBSERVED RAIN
TODAY.
TUESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A REPEAT OF MONDAY. SAME ATMOSPHERE,
SAME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SAME THING EXPECTED. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKING TO
BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT AS WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ALLOWING SOME
OF THESE STORMS TO BE SLOW MOVERS. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS LOOK
UNIMPRESSIVE, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS ISN'T
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT MORE CAN I SAY ABOUT WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ALMOST
EXACTLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
SOMEWHAT OF A SHIFT BEGINNING THURSDAY...POSSIBLY...WHERE THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN
THE PLATEAU. IF THAT DOES PAN OUT, LESS RAIN WOULD LIKELY MEAN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU, BUT NOTHING
LIKE WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK WITH THE LIFE-THREATENING HEAT INDEX
VALUES.
AT THIS POINT, I THINK IT'S JUST SAFE TO SAY THAT IT'S MID-JULY
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PREPARE FOR HIGHS NEAR 90F DEGREES AND A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM THAT COULD BRING SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. AND THEN COPY AND PASTE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. I'M NOT CONVINCED THAT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED, SO WE'LL HANDLE THAT POSSIBILITY WITH
PROB30 REMARKS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT RADIATION FOG ONCE AGAIN. IT IS
PROBABLE THAT AT LEAST KCKV, KCSV & KSRB WILL DROP TO IFR OR EVEN
LIFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW, WE'LL COVER THAT WITH PROB30 REMARKS
FOR TS/CBS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 88 72 88 / 40 60 30 60
CLARKSVILLE 70 87 70 87 / 40 60 20 60
CROSSVILLE 66 82 66 83 / 30 50 20 50
COLUMBIA 69 88 69 88 / 30 40 30 50
COOKEVILLE 68 84 68 84 / 40 50 30 60
JAMESTOWN 66 83 66 84 / 40 60 30 60
LAWRENCEBURG 68 86 68 86 / 30 40 20 40
MURFREESBORO 70 89 70 89 / 40 50 30 50
WAVERLY 69 86 69 87 / 20 70 20 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HURLEY
LONG TERM....HURLEY
AVIATION.....ROSE
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