620
FXUS64 KOHX 072338
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
638 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE MID TO
LATE WEEK, MAINLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
- DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW,
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGER, SLOWER-MOVING STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WE'VE HAD VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AT TIMES CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS HAVE CHANGED TO
INFLUENCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. FOR TODAY, OBSERVED AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF A MIX OF SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN PWS 1.8" TO 1.9" FOR AREAS WEST OF I-65.
THERE'S ALREADY BEEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
THIS MORNING, MAINLY MOD-HEAVY SHOWERS, IN PROXIMITY TO BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES AND THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW SWIRLING OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AREAS EAST OF I-65 HAVE A LITTLE MORE MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR/DCAPE. THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS VERY LOW AND STORM INTENSITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT
GIVEN LITTLE WIND SHEAR. GUIDANCE IS BRINGING BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, BUT
ALL AREAS COULD HAVE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR TOMORROW THE AIR MASS ISN'T APPEARING TO CHANGE MUCH. THERE'S
STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY AROUND. THE WEAK
UPPER-LOW JUST TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO DEVOLVE INTO A MORE OPEN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD KENTUCKY.
REGARDLESS, THIS FEATURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOWLY SCOOTING' NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, MEDIUM-RAGNE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A ZONAL FLOW THEREAFTER WITH PASSING
PERTURBATIONS LATE WEEK WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH MOIST, UNSTABLE
AIR AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY. WAVES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT. THE OVERALL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING IS LOW, BUT SOME OF THESE DETAILS WILL
BE MORE PREDICTABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO LATE WEEK SINCE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED. GUIDANCE & ENSEMBLES ARE
SHIFTING TO DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD THERE ARE NO TEMPERATURE-RELATED ISSUES, JUST
TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING AND HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON, WITH STILL CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY ONGOING AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING. IN THE NEAR TERM, KBNA AND KMQY ARE THE
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OVERNIGHT, WE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WE'RE
NOT CONFIDENT THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP, SO WE'LL KEEP IT
MVFR FOR NOW AT ALL TERMINALS. TOMORROW, ONCE AGAIN, WE EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WHICH WE'VE HANDLED WITH PROB30
REMARKS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 88 71 91 / 20 50 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 70 87 70 91 / 20 60 20 30
CROSSVILLE 66 83 66 83 / 20 70 30 60
COLUMBIA 69 88 69 90 / 20 50 30 40
COOKEVILLE 68 84 68 85 / 20 70 50 60
JAMESTOWN 66 83 66 84 / 20 70 40 50
LAWRENCEBURG 68 86 69 88 / 20 50 40 50
MURFREESBORO 70 89 70 91 / 20 50 30 40
WAVERLY 69 86 69 90 / 20 50 20 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....ROSE
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