450
FXUS64 KOHX 080517
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1217 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK, MAINLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
- DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW,
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STRONGER, SLOWER-MOVING STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MOISTENED SOILS WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE'S ROUGHLY A 20-40% CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER
TODAY BEING THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES.
TOMORROW WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN KY/TN WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY THE EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
PWATS IN THE 1.75-2"+ RANGE, SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. BULK SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER,
SO CHANCES ARE LOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. LIKE TODAY, THE
MORE LIKELY OUTCOME WILL BE STORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
THAT COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
WE'LL WARM UP A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST THANKS TO THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS
MAY KEEP THE BULK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RELEGATED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN, BUT ANY
STORM WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.5-1.75". HEAT INDICIES WILL REACH THE UPPER-90S TO
LOW-100S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
GREATER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE MORE SHEAR THAN WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH,
MEANING ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER BUT WITHOUT CONCERN FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES LIKE LAST WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE
NASHVILLE AREA AND WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. FOG
SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AFTER 17Z AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 02Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 72 91 74 / 60 30 30 40
CLARKSVILLE 87 71 91 75 / 60 20 20 40
CROSSVILLE 82 66 83 68 / 70 30 60 40
COLUMBIA 88 70 91 72 / 50 20 30 30
COOKEVILLE 84 68 85 70 / 60 40 60 50
JAMESTOWN 83 66 84 68 / 70 40 60 40
LAWRENCEBURG 86 69 88 71 / 50 30 40 40
MURFREESBORO 88 70 91 72 / 60 30 30 50
WAVERLY 87 70 90 73 / 50 20 10 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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