076
FXUS64 KOHX 090438
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1138 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 1 PM THURSDAY
TO 6 PM SUNDAY
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALOFT, SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES AT THE
SURFACE, AND A JUICY AIRMASS, THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO SUPPORT
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS RAIN WILL BE FALLING ON
SATURATED SOILS, LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY
TO 6 PM SUNDAY.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MIDDLE TN AS HAVING A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
THURSDAY: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL BE OUR MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DRIER AIR UPSTAIRS, LEADING TO
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST. THE CAMS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE TOMORROW AS
THE HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY MINIMAL COVERAGE WHILE THE NAM3K SHOWS
SCATTERED STORMS. REGARDLESS OF COVERAGE, ANY CELL WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT: CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FLASH FLOODING MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSE
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE,
BUT THIS COULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MESSY THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND PWATS WILL
SOAR TO 2-2.25"+ (GREATER THAN 90TH PERCENTILE). THE HRRR IS
SHOWING A BOWING SEGMENT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST STARTING TO FALL
APART BY THE TIME IT REACHES MIDDLE TN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECOND ROUND FOLLOWING SHORTLY AFTER AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE NAM3K, ON THE OTHER HAND, KEEPS US MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING NORTH IN KY. BY
THE AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF I-65.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
SATURDAY - SUNDAY: ALOFT, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WILL TRANSITION FROM AN OPEN WAVE TO A CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL RESIDE OVER TN/KY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEST/EAST DRAPED BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH. THESE FEATURES
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
MONDAY - THURSDAY: OUR PATTERN WILL CHANGE A BIT WITH THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY
BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN LOOKS MUCH DRIER THAN THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
TO THE SURPRISE OF ABSOLUTELY NO ONE, MORE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE WARM, UNSTABLE AND VERY HUMID MIDDLE TENNESSEE AIR MASS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THE TERMINALS COULD BE IMPACTED TO
VARIOUS DEGREES DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS, BUT WE EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO REALLY NOSEDIVE AFTER SUNSET. WE'VE INCLUDED SOME
LIGHT RADIATION FOG AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD, BUT WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO DENSE. OF COURSE, WE'VE MADE MENTION OF
MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES FOR THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 88 71 91 74 / 100 50 30 50
CLARKSVILLE 87 70 91 74 / 80 40 20 60
CROSSVILLE 83 65 83 67 / 80 40 60 50
COLUMBIA 88 69 90 72 / 60 30 30 40
COOKEVILLE 84 67 85 69 / 90 50 50 60
JAMESTOWN 85 66 84 68 / 80 40 50 60
LAWRENCEBURG 86 68 88 71 / 60 30 40 30
MURFREESBORO 88 70 91 72 / 80 60 50 50
WAVERLY 88 69 90 73 / 60 40 20 50
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....ROSE
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