181
FXUS64 KOHX 091103
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
603 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 559 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 1 PM THURSDAY
TO 6 PM SUNDAY
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALOFT, SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES AT THE
SURFACE, AND A JUICY AIRMASS, THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED TO SUPPORT
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THIS RAIN WILL BE FALLING ON
SATURATED SOILS, LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY
TO 6 PM SUNDAY.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MIDDLE TN AS HAVING A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
THURSDAY: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL BE OUR MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DRIER AIR UPSTAIRS, LEADING TO
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST. THE CAMS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE TOMORROW AS
THE HRRR SHOWS FAIRLY MINIMAL COVERAGE WHILE THE NAM3K SHOWS
SCATTERED STORMS. REGARDLESS OF COVERAGE, ANY CELL WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT: CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FLASH FLOODING MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSE
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE,
BUT THIS COULD SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MESSY THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
BETTER SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND PWATS WILL
SOAR TO 2-2.25"+ (GREATER THAN 90TH PERCENTILE). THE HRRR IS
SHOWING A BOWING SEGMENT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST STARTING TO FALL
APART BY THE TIME IT REACHES MIDDLE TN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECOND ROUND FOLLOWING SHORTLY AFTER AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE NAM3K, ON THE OTHER HAND, KEEPS US MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING NORTH IN KY. BY
THE AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF I-65.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
SATURDAY - SUNDAY: ALOFT, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WILL TRANSITION FROM AN OPEN WAVE TO A CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL RESIDE OVER TN/KY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEST/EAST DRAPED BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH. THESE FEATURES
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
MONDAY - THURSDAY: OUR PATTERN WILL CHANGE A BIT WITH THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY
BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN LOOKS MUCH DRIER THAN THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-40 WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA AFTER 5Z. MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 74 90 73 / 30 50 60 80
CLARKSVILLE 91 73 89 72 / 20 60 60 80
CROSSVILLE 83 68 83 68 / 60 50 80 80
COLUMBIA 90 72 89 72 / 40 30 60 70
COOKEVILLE 85 70 84 70 / 50 60 90 90
JAMESTOWN 84 68 83 68 / 50 60 90 90
LAWRENCEBURG 88 71 87 71 / 50 30 60 70
MURFREESBORO 91 73 90 72 / 50 40 70 80
WAVERLY 90 73 89 72 / 30 50 50 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....MUELLER/SEIDER
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