818
FXUS64 KOHX 091639
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 1 PM THURSDAY
TO 6 PM SUNDAY. REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1/5) EXISTS FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIMARY HAZARD IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT
THIS IS SECONDARY TO FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH CONTINUING DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
AN MCS AROUND ST. LOUIS IS MAKING ITS WAY SE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
PLENTIFUL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIURNAL CU VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING TODAY TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
WAA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY ALOFT, BUT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE
THIS, WE WILL STILL HAVE HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
TODAY AND FRIDAY. MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS IS DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON TODAY, HOWEVER, AS WE SHIFT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUR
THREAT WILL SHIFT AS WELL. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH AN
INCREASING 700MB LLJ IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE AS WELL, PROVIDING A PRIME OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR OTHER RAIN CHANCES, BUT
TONIGHT WILL BE A DECENT THREAT GIVEN HOW THE GROUND RESPONDED WITH
THIS MORNING'S THUNDERSTORMS.
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THINGS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THESE
WILL ALSO POSE A FLOODING RISK WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN EXPECTED IN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINAL IS THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE OUR
SEVERE RISK, AS SHEAR REMAINS IN THE BARELY DOUBLE DIGITS WHICH IS
FAR BELOW WHAT IS NECESSARY FOR SUSTAINED STORMS BUT CAPE IS HIGH
ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS VARIOUS RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO CAREEN THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE RISE.
REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY FLOODED
AREAS. NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH THEM, AS YOU DON'T KNOW HOW
DEEP THE WATER TRULY IS! WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY, AS WE ARE IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SIMILAR
SETUPS TO WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE ADDITION OF
SOME REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. HAZARDS RIGHT
NOW LOOK TO BE MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN, RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING.
INTO NEXT WEEK, THINGS LOOK WARMER, YET DRIER. I DON'T MEAN FEWER
RAIN CHANCES, I MEAN LESS HUMIDITY. WALKING OUTDOORS WILL NO LONGER
FEEL LIKE WALKING THROUGH A SWIMMING POOL, WITH HEAT INDICES
FORECASTED TO BE CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOES APPEAR AS RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERVASIVE IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-40 WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA AFTER 5Z. MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 73 90 74 / 40 50 70 80
CLARKSVILLE 91 74 89 73 / 20 60 70 70
CROSSVILLE 83 68 83 68 / 60 30 80 90
COLUMBIA 90 73 90 73 / 30 30 60 70
COOKEVILLE 85 70 85 70 / 50 40 90 80
JAMESTOWN 84 68 83 68 / 50 40 90 100
LAWRENCEBURG 88 72 88 72 / 40 30 60 70
MURFREESBORO 91 73 90 73 / 50 40 70 70
WAVERLY 90 73 89 73 / 30 50 60 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....MUELLER/SEIDER
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