615
FXUS64 KOHX 092323
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 1 PM THURSDAY
TO 6 PM SUNDAY. REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU
ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1/5) EXISTS FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIMARY HAZARD IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT
THIS IS SECONDARY TO FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH CONTINUING DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
AN MCS AROUND ST. LOUIS IS MAKING ITS WAY SE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
PLENTIFUL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIURNAL CU VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. STILL EXPECTING TODAY TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
WAA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY ALOFT, BUT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE
THIS, WE WILL STILL HAVE HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
TODAY AND FRIDAY. MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS IS DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON TODAY, HOWEVER, AS WE SHIFT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUR
THREAT WILL SHIFT AS WELL. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH AN
INCREASING 700MB LLJ IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE AS WELL, PROVIDING A PRIME OPPORTUNITY FOR FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR OTHER RAIN CHANCES, BUT
TONIGHT WILL BE A DECENT THREAT GIVEN HOW THE GROUND RESPONDED WITH
THIS MORNING'S THUNDERSTORMS.
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THINGS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THESE
WILL ALSO POSE A FLOODING RISK WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN EXPECTED IN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINAL IS THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE OUR
SEVERE RISK, AS SHEAR REMAINS IN THE BARELY DOUBLE DIGITS WHICH IS
FAR BELOW WHAT IS NECESSARY FOR SUSTAINED STORMS BUT CAPE IS HIGH
ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS VARIOUS RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO CAREEN THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE RISE.
REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY FLOODED
AREAS. NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH THEM, AS YOU DON'T KNOW HOW
DEEP THE WATER TRULY IS! WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY, AS WE ARE IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SIMILAR
SETUPS TO WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE ADDITION OF
SOME REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. HAZARDS RIGHT
NOW LOOK TO BE MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN, RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING.
INTO NEXT WEEK, THINGS LOOK WARMER, YET DRIER. I DON'T MEAN FEWER
RAIN CHANCES, I MEAN LESS HUMIDITY. WALKING OUTDOORS WILL NO LONGER
FEEL LIKE WALKING THROUGH A SWIMMING POOL, WITH HEAT INDICES
FORECASTED TO BE CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOES APPEAR AS RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERVASIVE IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OF STORM ACTIVITY, BUT A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CKV/BNA/MQY IS IMPACTED PRIOR TO 03Z BUT
THOSE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE HIGHER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO COME AFTER 06Z. IFR/MVFR VIS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT IMPACTS THE TERMINALS.
A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES RETURNING AFTER 11/00Z AT BNA. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW/SW AT 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 90 74 88 / 50 70 80 90
CLARKSVILLE 74 89 73 88 / 60 70 70 80
CROSSVILLE 68 83 68 81 / 30 80 90 90
COLUMBIA 73 90 73 88 / 30 60 70 90
COOKEVILLE 70 85 70 83 / 40 90 80 90
JAMESTOWN 68 83 68 82 / 40 90 100 90
LAWRENCEBURG 72 88 72 86 / 30 60 70 90
MURFREESBORO 73 90 73 88 / 40 70 70 90
WAVERLY 73 89 73 87 / 50 60 70 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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