777
FXUS64 KOHX 100357
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1043 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
- THERE'S A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH CONTINUING DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A DECAYING BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE IS
LOSING ITS STEAM AS ITS OUTFLOW HAS SURGED AHEAD OF IT. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY
WILL TURN DOWN THE SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY
STORM OVERNIGHT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN, WHICH COULD
POSE A FLOOD RISK GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE SOILS ARE FROM RECENT
PRECIPITATION.
TOMORROW, MORE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH ALOFT AND
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING. AS A SOUTHERLY 45 KT LLJ RAMPS UP IN THE AFTERNOON, THE
CAMS DEPICT ANOTHER BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE. AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE, HOWEVER, GIVEN
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND REMNANT CLOUD COVER. IF SOME
POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ARE ABLE TO PEAK THROUGH AND WE'RE ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE, AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FLOODING WILL BE A BIGGER CONCERN. BACKBUILDING CELLS ARE
PROBABLE, AND THIS IS CONCERNING GIVEN THAT THE GROUND IS SATURATED
AND PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 2.25-2.5" RANGE, WHICH COULD
CHALLENGE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DAILY MAX. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY A MID-MORNING LULL BEFORE DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRES OFF
AGAIN.
A WIDESPREAD 2-4" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SUNDAY
AT 6 PM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST, CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER
THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEST/EAST DRAPED
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND SUSTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ANY OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS CUTOFF LOW MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP HIGHER CHANGES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOWER AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OF STORM ACTIVITY, BUT A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CKV/BNA/MQY IS IMPACTED PRIOR TO 03Z BUT
THOSE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE HIGHER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO COME AFTER 06Z. IFR/MVFR VIS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT IMPACTS THE TERMINALS.
A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES RETURNING AFTER 11/00Z AT BNA. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW/SW AT 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 73 89 72 / 40 50 90 90
CLARKSVILLE 91 74 89 72 / 20 60 90 80
CROSSVILLE 83 68 81 67 / 60 60 90 90
COLUMBIA 90 73 89 72 / 30 30 70 80
COOKEVILLE 85 70 83 69 / 50 70 90 90
JAMESTOWN 84 68 82 67 / 50 70 100 80
LAWRENCEBURG 88 72 87 71 / 40 20 60 80
MURFREESBORO 91 73 89 72 / 50 40 80 90
WAVERLY 90 73 89 71 / 30 40 90 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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