618
FXUS64 KOHX 110401
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1101 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1009 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 6
PM SUNDAY.
- THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TN FOR THE TIME BEING. TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST ARE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SINKING
SOUTH. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SCATTERED NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUST FRONT
THAT'S CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KY. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH COVERAGE PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN MCV INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THIS
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS. SPC HAS MIDDLE TN IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IN ROTATING UPDRAFTS IS LOW AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DON'T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A HAIL
THREAT. ON SUNDAY, A BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND
SUSTAIN OUR CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER AND/OR TRAINING STORMS, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL IS HARD TO PIN DOWN AS IT HEAVILY DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A BUILDING
UPPER-RIDGE TO OUR WEST CUTS OFF A LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-RIDGE WILL HELP BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED.
WE'LL WARM BACK UP TO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE THURSDAY - SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF
POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FOR STORMS IS LOW, BUT THE
OVERALL THINKING IS ONE ROUND WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CIGS COULD BE REDUCED TO MVFR AND VIS MAY DROP TO IFR
DURING STORMS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW MAINLY
BETWEEN 5-10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 86 73 90 71 / 90 70 90 70
CLARKSVILLE 85 72 89 70 / 90 80 80 80
CROSSVILLE 79 67 83 66 / 90 80 90 80
COLUMBIA 87 73 90 70 / 80 40 80 70
COOKEVILLE 80 69 85 68 / 90 90 90 80
JAMESTOWN 78 67 84 66 / 90 90 90 80
LAWRENCEBURG 86 72 88 69 / 80 40 80 70
MURFREESBORO 86 72 91 70 / 90 70 90 70
WAVERLY 87 72 89 69 / 90 50 80 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CAHILL
LONG TERM....CAHILL
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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