313
FXUS64 KOHX 112347
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
- LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. OVERALL, FORECAST THINKING HASN'T CHANGED TO
WHAT IS WRITTEN BELOW. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
HEAVY RAIN. LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CAMS
SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE ACTIVE, MOIST PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY. A SLOW-MOVING
BOUNDARY AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS
HUMID AIRMASS (PWATS OF 2+ INCHES), AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR BOWING SEGMENTS. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD
MAJOR SEVERE EVENT, LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL HEIGHTEN FLASH FLOODING RISKS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY. THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
BETTER STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 (MAINLY ALONG AND W OF I-65). OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY, LINGERING STORMS ARE LIKELY, MAINTAINING THE
FLOOD THREAT WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD, HELPING TO CUT OFF OR WEAKEN THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH, KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
ALIVE, ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD STILL OCCUR WHERE STORMS TRAIN OR REPEAT, BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE COMPARED TO THE
WEEKEND.
BY MID TO LATE WEEK, DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD UNDER THE
EXPANDING RIDGE, WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP NOTABLY, PROVIDING
RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING FLOOD RISK. TEMPERATURES STAY SEASONALLY
WARM AND HUMID, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE REGION, HUMIDTY WILL KEEP THINGS FEELING
STICKY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-65, WITH A
"BREAK IN THE ACTION" OVER WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. STILL, THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS SOME RADIATION FOG ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOW CEILINGS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THOUGH THE MID STATE. SO
LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH THE FROPA. THERE
IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY, WHICH WE'VE HANDLED WITH PROB30 REMARKS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 83 70 84 / 70 90 40 80
CLARKSVILLE 70 83 69 84 / 90 80 40 60
CROSSVILLE 66 79 65 79 / 80 90 70 90
COLUMBIA 70 84 68 83 / 70 80 50 80
COOKEVILLE 68 80 67 81 / 80 90 50 90
JAMESTOWN 66 79 65 80 / 80 90 50 90
LAWRENCEBURG 69 83 68 82 / 70 80 50 80
MURFREESBORO 70 84 69 84 / 80 90 50 90
WAVERLY 69 82 68 83 / 70 80 50 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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