002
FXUS64 KOHX 120334
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1034 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
COVERAGE OF TODAY'S THUNDERSTORMS IS DIMINISHING, BUT WE'RE NOT
COMPLETELY DRY OUT THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. THE PWAT ON THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING CAME
IN AT A WHOPPING 2.19 INCHES WHICH WAS ALMOST A DAILY RECORD
(2.29 INCHES). MEANWHILE, THERE'S A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH, AND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND LIKELY STALL OVER
MIDDLE TN SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT SUNDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS A LOT LOWER WITH LITTLE
SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES. MAIN CONCERN THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR 2
INCHES. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. IT WON'T COMPLETELY CUT OFF
OUR RAIN CHANCES AS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN, HOWEVER, STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN EACH DAY.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MID-WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIT-AND-MISS STORMS
WEDNESDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S, BUT IT'LL FEEL WARMER WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-65, WITH A
"BREAK IN THE ACTION" OVER WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. STILL, THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS SOME RADIATION FOG ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOW CEILINGS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THOUGH THE MID STATE. SO
LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH THE FROPA. THERE
IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY, WHICH WE'VE HANDLED WITH PROB30 REMARKS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 84 70 85 / 80 90 40 70
CLARKSVILLE 70 84 70 86 / 80 80 30 30
CROSSVILLE 66 79 65 78 / 70 90 70 80
COLUMBIA 70 84 69 84 / 80 80 50 70
COOKEVILLE 68 80 67 81 / 80 90 50 80
JAMESTOWN 66 79 65 80 / 80 90 60 80
LAWRENCEBURG 69 83 68 82 / 90 80 50 70
MURFREESBORO 70 84 69 85 / 80 90 50 80
WAVERLY 69 83 68 85 / 70 80 40 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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