928
FXUS64 KOHX 120533
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1233 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
COVERAGE OF TODAY'S THUNDERSTORMS IS DIMINISHING, BUT WE'RE NOT
COMPLETELY DRY OUT THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. THE PWAT ON THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING CAME
IN AT A WHOPPING 2.19 INCHES WHICH WAS ALMOST A DAILY RECORD
(2.29 INCHES). MEANWHILE, THERE'S A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH, AND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND LIKELY STALL OVER
MIDDLE TN SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT SUNDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS A LOT LOWER WITH LITTLE
SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES. MAIN CONCERN THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR 2
INCHES. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. IT WON'T COMPLETELY CUT OFF
OUR RAIN CHANCES AS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN, HOWEVER, STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN EACH DAY.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MID-WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIT-AND-MISS STORMS
WEDNESDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S, BUT IT'LL FEEL WARMER WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF KY WHICH IS
FAVORING SCT SHRA ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE CURRENTLY. MOST SITES
HAVE A VCSH, THOUGH VFR PERSISTS AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV CURRENTLY.
INTERMITTENT MVFR IS ALREADY OBSERVED AT SRB AND CSV - LIFR CIGS
COULD BREAK OUT ANY MINUTE AT CSV WITH 100 FT CEILINGS ON THE LAST
OB. WILL MONITOR.
REGARDLESS, MVFR CIGS REMAIN FORECAST AT ALL SITES TOWARD
DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
INCREASING SHRA COVERAGE LATE MORNING. ISO TS IS FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IMPROVING CIGS. THE SFC LOW/BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH TOMORROW, SO WINDS WILL VEER, BUT REMAIN <10 KTS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOMORROW EVENING WITH
MVFR CIGS RE-DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 84 70 85 70 / 90 40 70 20
CLARKSVILLE 84 70 86 69 / 80 30 30 10
CROSSVILLE 79 65 78 64 / 90 70 80 20
COLUMBIA 84 69 84 68 / 80 50 70 20
COOKEVILLE 80 67 81 66 / 90 50 80 20
JAMESTOWN 79 65 80 64 / 90 60 80 10
LAWRENCEBURG 83 68 82 67 / 80 50 70 20
MURFREESBORO 84 69 85 68 / 90 50 80 20
WAVERLY 83 68 85 68 / 80 40 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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