603
FXUS64 KOHX 121128
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW.
- RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
COVERAGE OF TODAY'S THUNDERSTORMS IS DIMINISHING, BUT WE'RE NOT
COMPLETELY DRY OUT THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE. THE PWAT ON THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING CAME
IN AT A WHOPPING 2.19 INCHES WHICH WAS ALMOST A DAILY RECORD
(2.29 INCHES). MEANWHILE, THERE'S A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH, AND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND LIKELY STALL OVER
MIDDLE TN SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT SUNDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS A LOT LOWER WITH LITTLE
SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES. MAIN CONCERN THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR 2
INCHES. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. IT WON'T COMPLETELY CUT OFF
OUR RAIN CHANCES AS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN, HOWEVER, STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN EACH DAY.
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MID-WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIT-AND-MISS STORMS
WEDNESDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S, BUT IT'LL FEEL WARMER WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF KY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH MVFR CIG POTENTIAL. NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS,
BUT ADJUSTED PROB30 TIMING UP FOR BNA AND MQY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
AFTER THE DAYTIME CONVECTION DIMINISHES, WINDS WILL VEER NORTH OF
THE LOW PRESSURE/SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST
AFTER ~06Z WITH IFR THEREAFTER. THIS IS MAINLY HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
EXTENDED BNA TAF FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 83 70 85 70 / 80 30 60 20
CLARKSVILLE 83 69 86 69 / 80 30 30 10
CROSSVILLE 79 65 79 64 / 80 60 70 20
COLUMBIA 83 69 84 68 / 80 40 70 20
COOKEVILLE 80 67 81 66 / 80 40 70 20
JAMESTOWN 78 65 80 64 / 70 40 70 10
LAWRENCEBURG 83 68 82 67 / 70 40 70 20
MURFREESBORO 83 69 85 68 / 80 40 60 20
WAVERLY 82 68 85 68 / 80 30 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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