327
FXUS64 KOHX 252339
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- STORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESUME SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
MOISTURE RECOVERY HAS BEEN QUITE REMARKABLE OVER THE LAST 48
HOURS. PWAT OFF OF THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING WAS 2.20" WHICH IS A DAILY
RECORD. EVEN HIGHER PWAT VALUES HAVE ADVECTED IN FROM WEST
TENNESSEE WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A NOSE OF 2.4" PUSHING INTO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH AREAS IN WAYNE AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES PICKING UP OVER 3" OF RAIN THIS MORNING. CAMS SHOW THE
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
HOPEFULLY ALLOW THOSE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOME TIME FOR THE
CREEKS TO RETREAT BACK TO THEIR BANKS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL SPARK
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH CAMS FOCUSING POPS OVER THE
EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE AREA. PWATS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, BUT SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEW POINTS
WILL BE HIGH IN THE 70S WHICH WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
INTO THE 100-105 RANGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CAMS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE NBM HAS NOT CAUGHT ONTO THIS IDEA, BUT POPS WERE
ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK LIKE THE
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE MID TO
EVEN UPPER 90S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 110 DEGREES
BOTH DAYS WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN CHANCES THE FRONT WILL BRING DEW POINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEHIND THE
FRONT, RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
MIX BAG OF CONDITIONS OUT THERE THIS EVENING, FROM VFR TO MVFR
CIGS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED, LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST, WITH A WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS TIME, THINKING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY AFTER 12Z, MAKING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. ANY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES REMAIN
LOW FOR SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 92 73 95 / 50 20 30 20
CLARKSVILLE 73 92 73 95 / 30 10 20 20
CROSSVILLE 68 85 67 88 / 70 20 30 30
COLUMBIA 72 91 72 95 / 60 20 30 20
COOKEVILLE 70 86 69 89 / 80 20 30 30
JAMESTOWN 68 85 68 88 / 70 20 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 71 89 71 92 / 60 30 30 20
MURFREESBORO 72 92 72 95 / 50 20 30 30
WAVERLY 72 92 72 95 / 40 10 20 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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