871
FXUS64 KOHX 261645
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1145 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU
WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 110 EACH DAY.
- ALONG WITH THE USUAL HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS OF SUMMER DAYS,
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF BANDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. THE FIRST OF THESE BANDS
MAY MOVE SOUTH OUT OF KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A LEVEL 2
OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
- AFTER TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THERE ARE 2 MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY: HEAT AND STORMS.
A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EXPANDING ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU STARTING MONDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WILL LAST UNTIL 8 PM
TUESDAY. THE HOT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL
BULGE EASTWARD, GIVING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU HIGHS IN THE MID
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL OVER 100. THIS RESULTS IN HEAT
RISK LEVELS REACHING MAJOR RISK LEVEL (3 OUT OF 4). ALTHOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING BELOW 2 INCHES, NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. DEW POINTS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY AND THOSE PW VALUES
WILL CLIMB AGAIN GIVING FUEL FOR STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
SO WHAT ARE THE DETAILS ON STORMS? FIRST OF ALL, IN THIS HOT,
STEAMY ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES, WE CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME STORMS ANY TIME, ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BUT, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN OVERNIGHT
MCS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
INCONSISTENCIES WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY, BUT THAT IS TYPICAL OF
THIS PATTERN. WE KNOW THAT VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL BE PRESENT INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, SO ANY STORMS THAT DIVE
DOWN FROM KY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE UNDER A LEVEL
2 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK NORTH OF I-40 WITH A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 TO
THE SOUTH. IT WOULD BE WISE TO MONITOR UPDATES THROUGH THE
EVENING AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALONG WITH LOCALLY DEVELOPING SCATTERED STORMS, WE CANNOT RULE
OUT ANOTHER BIG STORM CLUSTER LATER MONDAY. BASICALLY, WE NEED TO
BE WATCHING TO OUR NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS
WE WRAP UP TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS TUESDAY EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TURN OFF THE STORMS AND DROP TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL ENJOY A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
EVENING, ALLOWING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE MID
STATE. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT, AND ALSO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SPREADS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH
TSRA CHANCES INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT AND VSBY IMPROVE AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING, AND RETURN
AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND 06Z ON THE 27TH. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT/CALM THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 92 75 95 78 / 20 60 30 20
CLARKSVILLE 93 75 96 78 / 20 60 20 10
CROSSVILLE 85 70 88 72 / 20 60 20 20
COLUMBIA 92 74 95 75 / 20 50 40 20
COOKEVILLE 87 71 89 74 / 20 60 20 20
JAMESTOWN 85 70 88 73 / 20 50 20 30
LAWRENCEBURG 90 73 93 75 / 20 60 40 20
MURFREESBORO 92 74 95 76 / 20 60 30 20
WAVERLY 92 75 95 76 / 20 50 30 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005-006-023>025-
056>058-093-094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
TNZ007>009-026>030-059>062-075-095.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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