671
FXUS64 KOHX 262318
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
618 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 552 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 110 DEGREES WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
- AFTER TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
IT'S DEFINITELY A TRICKY FORECAST THIS EVENING. AT THIS HOUR,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS PRESENT
THERE. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THIS
EVENING THAT EVENTUALLY CONGEALS INTO A LINE. THIS MCS SHOULD THEN
TRACK SOUTH THROUGH MIDDLE TN LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4500 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR OF 25-30
KNOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THIS ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. MAIN CONCERNS AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH WILL BE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE DO SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE WHICH POSES A LOW
TORNADO THREAT, AND SPC'S LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK DOES TOUCH ON THIS.
JUST BE SURE TO STAY WEATHER-AWARE AND HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE. THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE HOT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID-90S WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THERE ARE 2 MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY: HEAT AND STORMS.
A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EXPANDING ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU STARTING MONDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WILL LAST UNTIL 8 PM
TUESDAY. THE HOT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL
BULGE EASTWARD, GIVING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU HIGHS IN THE MID
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL OVER 100. THIS RESULTS IN HEAT
RISK LEVELS REACHING MAJOR RISK LEVEL (3 OUT OF 4). ALTHOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING BELOW 2 INCHES, NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. DEW POINTS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY AND THOSE PW VALUES
WILL CLIMB AGAIN GIVING FUEL FOR STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
SO WHAT ARE THE DETAILS ON STORMS? FIRST OF ALL, IN THIS HOT,
STEAMY ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES, WE CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME STORMS ANY TIME, ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BUT, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN OVERNIGHT
MCS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
INCONSISTENCIES WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY, BUT THAT IS TYPICAL OF
THIS PATTERN. WE KNOW THAT VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL BE PRESENT INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, SO ANY STORMS THAT DIVE
DOWN FROM KY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE UNDER A LEVEL
2 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK NORTH OF I-40 WITH A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 TO
THE SOUTH. IT WOULD BE WISE TO MONITOR UPDATES THROUGH THE
EVENING AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALONG WITH LOCALLY DEVELOPING SCATTERED STORMS, WE CANNOT RULE
OUT ANOTHER BIG STORM CLUSTER LATER MONDAY. BASICALLY, WE NEED TO
BE WATCHING TO OUR NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS
WE WRAP UP TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS TUESDAY EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TURN OFF THE STORMS AND DROP TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE WILL ENJOY A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
EVENING, ALLOWING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE MID
STATE. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT, AND ALSO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SPREADS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. DID UPGRADE THE PROB30 GROUPS TO
TEMPOS AS CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS INCREASES. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING WHICH STILL MAY HAVE TO BE AMENDED
LATER. DIRECT IMPACTS BY STORMS MAY LED TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
CIGS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN MONDAY MORNING AS STORM COVERAGE DIMINISHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 95 77 96 / 80 20 10 40
CLARKSVILLE 75 95 78 95 / 70 20 10 20
CROSSVILLE 70 88 71 88 / 70 20 20 70
COLUMBIA 74 95 75 96 / 70 20 10 30
COOKEVILLE 71 89 73 90 / 70 20 20 70
JAMESTOWN 70 88 72 88 / 70 10 30 80
LAWRENCEBURG 73 92 74 94 / 70 30 10 30
MURFREESBORO 74 95 76 97 / 80 20 10 40
WAVERLY 75 95 76 95 / 50 20 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005-006-023>025-
056>058-093-094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
TNZ007>009-026>030-059>062-075-095.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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