233
FXUS64 KOHX 270346
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1046 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, AND
WE DON'T HAVE AS MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WHATEVER
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 105 TO 110+ DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU.
- AFTER TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
EARLIER SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND WE HAVE ALREADY CLEARED SOME
COUNTIES FROM THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. IT IS UNCLEAR
AT THIS POINT WHETHER WE CAN STILL EXPECT A SECOND MCS TO COME
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND HOW STRONG ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MIGHT BE. THE EVENING STORMS REALLY SAPPED A
LOT OF THE ATMOSPHERE'S ENERGY AND WE AREN'T NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
WE WERE BEFORE THEY ARRIVED. BUT WE ARE KEEPING IN POPS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD GIVEN THE POSSIBLITY THAT THE EXISTING MCS
CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL INDEED HOLD TOGETHER THIS
FAR SOUTH. HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO REACH 105+ MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND MANY AREAS WEST OF I-65
ARE LIKELY TO REACH 110+. HEAT INDICIES ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY
AS OPPRESSIVE, SO WE HAVE UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH TUESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING. THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT PERHAPS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS, SO
THAT THE HEAT THREAT WILL END AFTER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. ALSO, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY LOW.
HOWEVER, THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER WET ONE AS THE
NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM SPREADS INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. DID UPGRADE THE PROB30 GROUPS TO
TEMPOS AS CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS INCREASES. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING WHICH STILL MAY HAVE TO BE AMENDED
LATER. DIRECT IMPACTS BY STORMS MAY LED TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
CIGS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN MONDAY MORNING AS STORM COVERAGE DIMINISHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 95 77 96 / 70 20 10 40
CLARKSVILLE 75 95 78 95 / 70 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 70 88 71 89 / 70 10 10 50
COLUMBIA 74 95 75 97 / 60 30 10 40
COOKEVILLE 71 89 73 91 / 80 10 10 50
JAMESTOWN 70 88 72 89 / 70 0 20 60
LAWRENCEBURG 73 92 74 95 / 60 30 10 40
MURFREESBORO 74 95 76 97 / 70 20 10 40
WAVERLY 75 95 76 95 / 50 20 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005-006-
023>025-056>058-093-094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
TNZ007>009-026>030-059>062-075-095.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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