871
FXUS64 KOHX 271158
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
658 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO
110+ DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR AT TIMES.
- AFTER TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
GRADUALLY DECAYING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF KY EARLY THIS MORNING IMPACTING MAINLY OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN
SOME AREAS WITH LAWRENCE COUNTY PARTICULARLY IMPACTED. PARTS OF
LAWRENCE COUNTY HAVE HAD MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS LEADING TO AREAS OF HIGH WATER. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
WAS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL TRIGGER NEW WARNINGS FOR THE LAWRENCE COUNTY AREA.
EXACT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS UNCERTAIN OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES. THE NBM HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW AND PATCHY WITH POPS. HIT AND MISS STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS MAY COME DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVEN
THOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH. ANY STORMS THAT FORM OVERHEAD
OR MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
OTHERWISE, HEAT HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE MID STATE WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
EARLIER SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND WE HAVE ALREADY CLEARED SOME
COUNTIES FROM THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. IT IS UNCLEAR
AT THIS POINT WHETHER WE CAN STILL EXPECT A SECOND MCS TO COME
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND HOW STRONG ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MIGHT BE. THE EVENING STORMS REALLY SAPPED A
LOT OF THE ATMOSPHERE'S ENERGY AND WE AREN'T NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS
WE WERE BEFORE THEY ARRIVED. BUT WE ARE KEEPING IN POPS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD GIVEN THE POSSIBLITY THAT THE EXISTING MCS
CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL INDEED HOLD TOGETHER THIS
FAR SOUTH. HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO REACH 105+ MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND MANY AREAS WEST OF I-65
ARE LIKELY TO REACH 110+. HEAT INDICIES ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY
AS OPPRESSIVE, SO WE HAVE UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH TUESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING. THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT PERHAPS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS, SO
THAT THE HEAT THREAT WILL END AFTER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. ALSO, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY LOW.
HOWEVER, THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER WET ONE AS THE
NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM SPREADS INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
AS SHRA EXIT THE AREA, CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE THROUGH
18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, AROUND 5 - 10
KNOTS. REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 95 78 96 72 / 40 10 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 95 78 95 70 / 30 20 20 10
CROSSVILLE 88 71 89 67 / 0 20 40 20
COLUMBIA 95 75 97 71 / 50 10 10 40
COOKEVILLE 89 73 91 68 / 0 10 50 20
JAMESTOWN 88 72 89 66 / 0 20 60 30
LAWRENCEBURG 92 75 95 71 / 60 10 10 50
MURFREESBORO 95 76 97 72 / 30 10 20 30
WAVERLY 95 76 95 71 / 40 10 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005-006-
023>025-056>058-093-094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
TNZ007>009-026>030-059>062-075-095.
UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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