619
FXUS64 KOHX 280358
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1058 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- EXPECT DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105 TO 110+ DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- AFTER TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
STORMS COMING DOWN OUT OF KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FIZZLE OUT, AND THE
HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO WE'RE NOT TOO CONCERNED
ABOUT CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT ACROSS
THE STATE LINE. TOMORROW, THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS A MUCH-NEEDED AND
MUCH-WELCOME SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE LATE IN THE DAY. SOME STORMS TOMORROW MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS VERY
LOW. TUESDAY WILL BE LAST DAY FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE NOTICEABLY FOLLOWING TOMORROW'S
FROPA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL BE
, WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS REMAIN MANAGEABLE. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
REMARKABLY STEADY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO MORE
EXCESSIVE HEAT ON THE HORIZON. HOWEVER, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, AND
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP (FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS
AND RIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT PEGGED
FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE DAYS 4-8 OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE WE MONITOR AN MCS
STRUCTURE SURGING SOUTH INTO N KY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TERMINALS
WILL BE IF THIS FEATURE MANAGES TO PROGRESS INTO MIDDLE TN
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME, LATEST THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS
STILL A LOW CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS HOLD TOGETHER, SO HAVE
INCLUDED A FEW PROB30S WITH LATEST TAF ISSUANCE TO COVER THIS
CONCERN. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY N WINDS. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE PLATEAU THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 78 97 72 89 / 0 10 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 78 96 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 71 89 66 83 / 10 40 10 0
COLUMBIA 75 97 71 90 / 0 0 10 0
COOKEVILLE 73 91 67 84 / 10 30 10 0
JAMESTOWN 72 90 66 83 / 30 40 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 75 96 71 88 / 0 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 76 98 71 89 / 0 20 10 0
WAVERLY 76 96 71 89 / 0 0 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005-006-
023>025-056>058-093-094.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ007>009-026>030-
059>062-075-095.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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