569
FXUS64 KOHX 281604
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 943 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- EXPECT DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105 TO 110+ DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY
ALONG AND NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
- AFTER TODAY, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
IT WILL BE A VERY HOT DAY TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS, SO PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU ARE TAKING
PRECAUTIONS IF YOU PLAN TO SPEND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME
OUTDOORS. AFTER TODAY, THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS, THANKFULLY, GONE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OUR NORTH TODAY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW TODAY, IT IS NOT ZERO. WITH THE COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERING OUR VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH THEM. FORTUNATELY, ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OR AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WE WILL BE TREATED TO A DROP IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID OUTSIDE
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S, BUT ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE MORE
TOLERABLE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT TUE JUL 28
2026
THE REAL RELIEF COMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY ON BOTH
DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY, BEGINNING ON FRIDAY NIGHT, RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A VERY STRONG, AT LEAST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF
THE MIDWEST AND RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH
IT A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE WPC HAS
ALREADY OUTLINED MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. AS FOR THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, THERE IS
NOT A STRONG SIGNAL AT THIS TIME, THOUGH IT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR
IN FUTURE UPDATES. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT BRIEF DROPS
TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHBOUND COLD FRONT. AS THIS
FRONT APPROACHES, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO 15-20 KT AS THEY
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
NORTHERLY WITH MIX OF SCATTERED LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 97 72 90 66 / 30 30 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 96 69 89 66 / 20 20 10 0
CROSSVILLE 89 66 84 60 / 50 40 10 0
COLUMBIA 97 72 90 66 / 20 30 10 0
COOKEVILLE 91 68 85 62 / 40 40 10 0
JAMESTOWN 90 66 84 60 / 60 30 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 96 71 89 65 / 20 40 10 0
MURFREESBORO 98 72 90 66 / 30 40 10 0
WAVERLY 96 71 90 66 / 20 20 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005-006-
023>025-056>058-093-094.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>009-026>030-
059>062-075-095.
SHORT TERM...13/SEIDER
LONG TERM....13/SEIDER
AVIATION.....CAHILL
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