446
FXUS64 KOHX 282324
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
624 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM
TODAY.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS (40+ MPH)
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND MORE
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
IT'S STILL PRETTY CRAZY HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE RIGHT NOW. SEVERAL
PLACES STILL HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 100S. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO COME DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WE'LL SEE
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS RETURN TO MUCH MORE BEARABLE LEVELS TOMORROW
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE HEAT HEADLINES END AT 8 PM.
SPEAKING OF, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY PERKED UP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW
RELEGATED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE FRONT IS ONLY A FEW HOURS
FROM MOVING INTO ALABAMA. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT, CAPE VALUES ARE
INCREDIBLY HIGH RIGHT NOW -- ON THE ORDER OF 5000-6000 J/KG -- BUT
THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE CREATING A SEVERE
THREAT FOR US ARE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TN. WE'RE CLOCKING IN AT
ABOUT 25 KTS, WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO PERSIST
FOR A LOW WIND THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF US BY THEN. UNTIL THEN, KEEP ONE EYE TO THE SKY IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS AND YOU LIVE SOUTH OF I-40.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
IT WILL BE A VERY HOT DAY TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING
WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS, SO PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU ARE TAKING
PRECAUTIONS IF YOU PLAN TO SPEND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME
OUTDOORS. AFTER TODAY, THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS, THANKFULLY, GONE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OUR NORTH TODAY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW TODAY, IT IS NOT ZERO. WITH THE COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERING OUR VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH THEM. FORTUNATELY, ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OR AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WE WILL BE TREATED TO A DROP IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID OUTSIDE
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S, BUT ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE MORE
TOLERABLE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE REAL RELIEF COMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY ON BOTH
DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY, BEGINNING ON FRIDAY NIGHT, RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A VERY STRONG, AT LEAST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF
THE MIDWEST AND RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH
IT A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE WPC HAS
ALREADY OUTLINED MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. AS FOR THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, THERE IS
NOT A STRONG SIGNAL AT THIS TIME, THOUGH IT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR
IN FUTURE UPDATES. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POPPING UP OVER MIDDLE TN, BUT NONE ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NE. WINDS BACK TO THE NW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 90 65 87 / 20 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 71 89 65 87 / 20 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 66 84 58 82 / 30 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 73 90 66 87 / 30 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 68 85 61 82 / 30 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 66 83 59 82 / 30 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 72 89 65 86 / 30 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 72 90 65 87 / 30 10 0 0
WAVERLY 72 90 66 87 / 20 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005-006-
023>025-056>058-093-094.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-026>034-
059>066-075-077>080-095.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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