218
FXUS64 KOHX 301725
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1225 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MORE TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS VERY LOW FOR SATURDAY.
- WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINS LOW FOR SATURDAY, IT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
DEWPOINTS ARE SITTING PLEASANTLY IN THE MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
HIGH PRESSURE, GIVING WAY TO A BEAUTIFUL LATE JULY DAY ACROSS
MIDDLE TN. MOISTURE WILL RETURN SLOWLY ALONG SOUTH WINDS TOMORROW,
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE ANY PRECIP YET. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS PUTTING HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW
90S. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS AN OCCLUDED LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
FORECAST SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT A LARGE, OCCLUDED UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE EASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY MORNING. WE'LL START
SEEING IMPACTS FROM THIS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.
MOVING TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY CATCH UP DURING PEAK HEATING, PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING
TO SPARK ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. AN
EARLY LOOK AT PARAMETER SPACE INDICATES A WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SFC-500 MB SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS. THIS IS
PLENTY TO HOLD A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TOGETHER
(ESPECIALLY WITH ~1500 J/KG OF CAPE) ALONG THE COLD FRONT, BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLULAR BEHAVIOR. IN TERMS OF A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT, EXPECT MAINLY DISORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS ON THEIR OUTFLOWS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MORE EVIDENT THREAT FOR SATURDAY IS HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEING DISPLACED JUST TO OUR WEST,
WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
GIVING WAY TO DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2 TO 2.3 INCHES ALL DAY SATURDAY, WHICH IS NEARING THE
UPPER ECHELON OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS BEFORE AND DURING THE
FROPA. THOUGH THE FRONT ITSELF WILL HAVE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS,
THE STORM MOTIONS THEMSELVES WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, CREATING A POTENTIAL TRAINING
SCENARIO ALL DAY. COMBINED WITH TRAINING STORMS, THESE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WILL POSE AN ELEVATED FLASH FLOODING RISK FOR
MIDDLE TN ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES EARLY SUNDAY, HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY DROP TO PLEASANT LEVELS FOR EARLY AUGUST. UNFORTUNATELY
FOR COOLER WEATHER LOVERS, NOT FOR LONG. BY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 55 91 72 88 / 0 0 60 90
CLARKSVILLE 64 89 72 88 / 0 0 60 80
CROSSVILLE 59 86 66 81 / 0 0 50 90
COLUMBIA 65 91 72 88 / 0 0 60 80
COOKEVILLE 61 86 68 82 / 0 0 60 90
JAMESTOWN 60 86 66 82 / 0 0 40 80
LAWRENCEBURG 64 90 71 86 / 0 0 60 80
MURFREESBORO 64 91 71 88 / 0 0 60 90
WAVERLY 66 90 72 87 / 0 0 60 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIRKES
LONG TERM....DIRKES
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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