865
FXUS64 KOHX 311036
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
536 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TONIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINS LOW FOR SATURDAY, IT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE RAIN AND REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
TODAY WAS AN ABSOLUTE TREAT FOR LATE JULY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TOMORROW WILL
MUCH OF THE SAME THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A TICK OR TWO WARMER AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF TOMORROW NIGHT'S
RAIN. YES, THE STREAK OF DRY DAYS WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT
AS A LARGE UPPER DIGS INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS. GULF MOISTURE
WILL FLUX HARD NORTHWARD BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
MIDDLE TN STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT BRINGING PWAT VALUES OF
2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES INTO THE MID-STATE AHEAD OF THE EVENTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE DAY SHIFT ASSESSMENT OF STORM
FLOW VS FRONTAL POSITIONING IS GOING TO PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL SATURDAY, HOWEVER RAINFALL AMOUNT PROBS HAVE
LEVELED OUT IN THE LAST FEW NBM RUNS AND REMAIN VERY SIMILAR, IF NOT
A TOUCH LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. I'M STILL SEEING 1.5"+ PROBS COMING
IN AT 40-50% AND 2"+ PROBS AT 20% WITH THE FOCUS OF ANY HEAVIER
RAINS EAST OF I-65. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE HAVE AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS OF DRYING AHEAD OF US. THAT MEANS THE FFG, WHICH CONTINUES
IMPROVE EACH DAY, SHOULD BE EVEN BETTER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
THE NEXT 6 HOURS, WE WILL START GETTING CAM SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME AND SHOULD GRAB A BETTER HOLD WHAT TO EXPECT. THE FACT THAT
PROBS HAVE PLATEAUED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND ECMWF EFI VALUES HAVE
TAPERED OFF IN THE EAST COULD BE AN INDICATION ANY FLOODING THREAT
COULD BE VERY ISOLATED HERE IN MIDDLE TN. IN ADDITION, I DON'T THINK
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS CHANGED AT ALL, EITHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POOR LAPSE RATES AND WHILE 20-25 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION ALONG THE FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING, ANY WIND THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
AS SUNDAY ROLLS AROUND, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS
THE KY-TN STATE LINE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AT LEAST
INTO SUNDAY MORNING (POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON) AND
TEMPERATURES WELL-BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, THIS WON'T BE THE CASE FOR
THE NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A DIURNAL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY WITH LOW
90S RETURNING TO THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT BNA/MQY/CKV PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY
SO PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5
KTS AFTER 14Z OUT OF THE SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 91 74 90 66 / 0 60 80 30
CLARKSVILLE 90 74 87 70 / 0 60 50 20
CROSSVILLE 86 68 81 67 / 0 20 90 90
COLUMBIA 92 73 90 69 / 0 70 70 20
COOKEVILLE 86 70 84 68 / 0 30 90 80
JAMESTOWN 86 68 83 67 / 0 20 80 90
LAWRENCEBURG 90 72 88 68 / 0 70 70 30
MURFREESBORO 91 73 90 70 / 0 60 80 40
WAVERLY 91 73 87 68 / 0 60 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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