256
FXUS64 KOHX 312211
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
511 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING, TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OR SLIGHT (LEVEL
2 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
- WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING REMAINS LOW FOR SATURDAY, IT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE RAIN AND REMAIN COOLER-THAN-NORMAL (WITH LOWER HUMIDITY!)
TO START NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 506 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
HAD TO MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
POP AND QPF AS THESE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS WERE GROSSLY
UNEXPECTED. THERE IS THE EXPECTATION THAT THESE WILL WANE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT RAIN AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS EXPECTED
TO REACH AT LEAST THE I-65 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6-7 PM. THIS DOESN'T
CHANGE THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST HOWEVER. MORE LATER AS THE LATEST
SUITE OF MODELS BECOMES AVAILABLE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
TODAY IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS WE CAN EXPECT FOR THE END OF JULY.
THIS MORNING WAS COOL AND PLEASANT AND WE'RE ENJOYING LOWER
HUMIDITY TODAY, AS WELL. (THE MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS JUST
0.85!) UNFORTUNATELY, THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL NOT LAST. RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES WILL RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SATURDAY AS PART OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A SPRINGTIME WEST-TO-EAST
MOVING FEATURE RATHER THAN THE SLOW-MOVING NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE
BOUNDARIES THAT WE'VE SEEN A GREAT DEAL OF THIS SUMMER.
TOMORROW'S FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE HRRR DOES SHOW PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY WITH PWAT VALUES RECOVERING QUITE NICELY, ALTHOUGH
WE'RE GOING TO REQUIRE QUITE A LOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TO GET
THERE. LIKE SO MANY OF OUR ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES THIS SUMMER,
TOMORROW'S ENVIRONMENT COMES WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, BUT NOT AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT. THUS, THE
PRIMARY RISKS TOMORROW ARE GOING TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. BUT THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DEFINITELY DROPS OFF AFTER SATURDAY EVENING.
FORTUNATELY, WE'LL ENJOY SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING WITH
SATURDAY'S FROPA, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START
NEXT WEEK. WE'LL WARM UP TO MORE TYPICAL READINGS TOWARD WEEK'S
END, BUT THERE ARE NO HEAT-RELATED CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST
09Z ON SATURDAY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AROUND 09Z, PROB30 GROUPS
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY AT ABOUT 5 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON SATURDAY,
WHERE THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AT AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 89 65 83 / 80 70 10 50
CLARKSVILLE 74 87 70 81 / 60 50 20 80
CROSSVILLE 67 82 66 80 / 40 90 80 70
COLUMBIA 73 90 68 84 / 80 60 10 50
COOKEVILLE 69 84 67 80 / 50 90 70 70
JAMESTOWN 68 83 67 81 / 30 80 80 60
LAWRENCEBURG 72 88 68 82 / 80 70 30 60
MURFREESBORO 73 90 69 84 / 70 80 30 50
WAVERLY 73 86 68 80 / 50 40 20 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CAHILL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page