236
FXUS64 KOHX 010333
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1033 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WITH A LOW RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND A LOW RISK FOR
FLOODING, BOTH EAST OF I-65 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS SATURDAY.
- THERE'S AT LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
AROUND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
ANOTHER INCREDIBLE JULY DAY IS JUST ABOUT IN THE BOOKS AND COME TO
THINK OF IT, SO IS AUGUST AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE GOING TO START THE
MONTH OFF WET. AFTER SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING
WEST OF I-65, WE'RE ALREADY LOOKING UPSTREAM AT STORMS IN SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THAT ARE HEADED THIS WAY. NO SEVERE IS EXPECTED WITH
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT AS CAPE VALUES ARE SUB-500 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN LOW. THE EARLIER RAIN AND THE OVERNIGHT STUFF ARE ALL PART OF
A LARGER SYSTEM THAT HAS REALLY WRAPPED UP OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS EVENING AND AS THE ATTENDANT UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
OHIO AND TN VALLEYS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, YOU ARE GOING TO
FEEL THE DIFFERENCE IN HUMIDITY. HECK, I WOULD ARGUE MOST ARE
ALREADY FEELING IT WITH DEW POINTS HAVING JUMPED UP INTO THE LOW 70S
JUST WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
HELP TO FUEL A FEW STORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TN. CAMS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TOMORROW BEING EAST OF I-65 -- AT LEAST THE STRONGER AND
HEAVIER STUFF -- SOME TIME BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM. IF YOU HAVEN'T
SEEN, SPC DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN
THIS WINDOW TOMORROW. I HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT A LOW WIND RISK
TOMORROW AND I REALLY DON'T THINK IT'S MUCH DIFFERENT AFTER LOOKING
AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN TONIGHT. POOR LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT
THIS EVENT SHOULD ACT TO CURB A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. BETTER
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEEN NORTH OF US, WHICH IS WHY
THERE'S A BETTER SEVERE THREAT IN KY AND EVEN A 2% TOR RISK. IF FOR
SOME REASON THOSE BETTER LAPSE RATES LEAK SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE
A LOW TORNADO RISK HERE, TOO, BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
FOR THE LAST 4 NIGHTS INDICATING THAT WON'T BE THE CASE. SO, A LOW
WIND RISK AND THEN THE RAINFALL I'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT, TOO. I
REALLY LIKE THE IDEA THAT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED, MEANING WE WON'T SEE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES.
CHANCES FOR 2"+ ANYWHERE EAST OF I-65 REMAIN AT 20-30%, SO I THINK
WE'RE GOOD THERE AS 1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS STILL HIGHER THAN
THAT IN THE AREAS WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED. IN THE END, BE WEATHER
AWARE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALL SHOULD BE WELL.
AFTER THE CORE OF THE STORMS EXIT INTO EAST TN TOMORROW EVENING, I
DON'T THINK WE'RE GOING TO BE COMPLETELY DONE WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW PUSHING TOWARDS THE MID-STATE ON
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE RAIN, BUT MANY WILL WITH
AT LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR BRIEF STORM. IN FACT,
SEVERAL MODELS HAVE THIS UPPER LOW SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AND WE
COULD SEE SHOWERS FROM IT INTO MONDAY NOW, AS WELL. THIS WOULD
EXPLAIN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NOW BEING SEEN MONDAY TO
START OFF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
I'M NOT SOLD ON THE REST OF THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY AS WE NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONE OR TWO MODELS HAVE DIURNAL ACTIVITY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND OTHERS ARE DRY, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WORK OUT THOSE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES REVERT BACK TO SOMETHING CLOSER TO NORMAL AROUND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TN, BUT ARE
WEAKENING AS THEY PROGRESS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THEY GET
CLOSER TO BNA AND MQY WITH NO MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH 01Z. TWO MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD - THE FIRST BEING LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND BEING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-65, AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR CKV
COVER THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 75 90 65 83 / 70 70 10 70
CLARKSVILLE 74 86 69 81 / 80 40 20 80
CROSSVILLE 67 83 66 80 / 20 90 80 60
COLUMBIA 73 90 69 83 / 70 40 10 60
COOKEVILLE 69 85 68 81 / 40 80 60 60
JAMESTOWN 68 84 67 81 / 10 90 70 70
LAWRENCEBURG 72 88 68 82 / 70 50 10 70
MURFREESBORO 73 91 69 84 / 70 70 20 60
WAVERLY 73 86 68 80 / 70 40 10 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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