276
FXUS64 KOHX 011145
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
645 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY WITH A LOW RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND ALSO SOME RISK
FOR FLASH-FLOODING.
- THERE'S AT LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STICK
AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- EXPECT LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS CLOSER TO
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
ANOTHER INCREDIBLE JULY DAY IS JUST ABOUT IN THE BOOKS AND COME TO
THINK OF IT, SO IS AUGUST AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE GOING TO START THE
MONTH OFF WET. AFTER SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING
WEST OF I-65, WE'RE ALREADY LOOKING UPSTREAM AT STORMS IN SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THAT ARE HEADED THIS WAY. NO SEVERE IS EXPECTED WITH
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT AS CAPE VALUES ARE SUB-500 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN LOW. THE EARLIER RAIN AND THE OVERNIGHT STUFF ARE ALL PART OF
A LARGER SYSTEM THAT HAS REALLY WRAPPED UP OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS EVENING AND AS THE ATTENDANT UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
OHIO AND TN VALLEYS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, YOU ARE GOING TO
FEEL THE DIFFERENCE IN HUMIDITY. HECK, I WOULD ARGUE MOST ARE
ALREADY FEELING IT WITH DEW POINTS HAVING JUMPED UP INTO THE LOW 70S
JUST WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
HELP TO FUEL A FEW STORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TN. CAMS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TOMORROW BEING EAST OF I-65 -- AT LEAST THE STRONGER AND
HEAVIER STUFF -- SOME TIME BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM. IF YOU HAVEN'T
SEEN, SPC DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN
THIS WINDOW TOMORROW. I HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT A LOW WIND RISK
TOMORROW AND I REALLY DON'T THINK IT'S MUCH DIFFERENT AFTER LOOKING
AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AGAIN TONIGHT. POOR LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT
THIS EVENT SHOULD ACT TO CURB A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. BETTER
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEEN NORTH OF US, WHICH IS WHY
THERE'S A BETTER SEVERE THREAT IN KY AND EVEN A 2% TOR RISK. IF FOR
SOME REASON THOSE BETTER LAPSE RATES LEAK SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE
A LOW TORNADO RISK HERE, TOO, BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
FOR THE LAST 4 NIGHTS INDICATING THAT WON'T BE THE CASE. SO, A LOW
WIND RISK AND THEN THE RAINFALL I'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT, TOO. I
REALLY LIKE THE IDEA THAT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED, MEANING WE WON'T SEE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES.
CHANCES FOR 2"+ ANYWHERE EAST OF I-65 REMAIN AT 20-30%, SO I THINK
WE'RE GOOD THERE AS 1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS STILL HIGHER THAN
THAT IN THE AREAS WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED. IN THE END, BE WEATHER
AWARE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALL SHOULD BE WELL.
AFTER THE CORE OF THE STORMS EXIT INTO EAST TN TOMORROW EVENING, I
DON'T THINK WE'RE GOING TO BE COMPLETELY DONE WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW PUSHING TOWARDS THE MID-STATE ON
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE RAIN, BUT MANY WILL WITH
AT LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR BRIEF STORM. IN FACT,
SEVERAL MODELS HAVE THIS UPPER LOW SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AND WE
COULD SEE SHOWERS FROM IT INTO MONDAY NOW, AS WELL. THIS WOULD
EXPLAIN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NOW BEING SEEN MONDAY TO
START OFF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
I'M NOT SOLD ON THE REST OF THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY AS WE NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONE OR TWO MODELS HAVE DIURNAL ACTIVITY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND OTHERS ARE DRY, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WORK OUT THOSE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES REVERT BACK TO SOMETHING CLOSER TO NORMAL AROUND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MORNING CONVECTION ROLLS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING,
WITH MOST OF THE TERMINALS BEING IMPACTED NOW OR IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. ALSO LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, AND
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE DO EXPECT A SECOND ROUND
OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE P.M.
HOURS, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE
EVENING. LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG AND ALSO LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FROPA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 65 83 62 / 70 10 70 30
CLARKSVILLE 86 69 80 69 / 50 20 70 30
CROSSVILLE 83 67 80 65 / 100 80 50 30
COLUMBIA 90 68 83 68 / 50 0 70 20
COOKEVILLE 85 68 80 67 / 90 60 60 40
JAMESTOWN 84 67 81 66 / 100 80 60 30
LAWRENCEBURG 88 67 82 67 / 60 10 70 30
MURFREESBORO 91 69 84 69 / 80 10 50 30
WAVERLY 86 68 79 67 / 40 10 80 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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