482
FXUS64 KOHX 011557
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-65, WITH A 2 OUT OF 5
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS, SOME RISK FOR FLASH-FLOODING, AND ALSO
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR TWO.
- THERE'S AT LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STICK
AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- EXPECT LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK, MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW ENTERING NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
AND THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY HAS
MOSTLY ENDED, AND SO WE'LL TURN OUR ATTENTION TO ROUND TWO OF
TODAY'S ACTIVE WEATHER. SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
A LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY THE TIME IT
CROSSES I-65 AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS. THEREFORE, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH LESS
IMPACTFUL. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 2.36", WHICH IS A RECORD VALUE FOR THIS DATE AND
ALSO REPRESENTS A RATHER NOTEWORTHY INCREASE OVER THE 0.85" PWAT
VALUE WE OBSERVED 24 HRS. AGO (WHICH WAS BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY). OF COURSE, THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING
WAS RELEASED DURING A SHOWER AND IS SOMEWHAT RAIN-CONTAMINATED UP
TO ~550 MB, BUT IT ALSO ILLUSTRATES THE DRAMATIC MOISTURE
ADVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED THE PAST 24 HRS. SO WE'RE RIGHT BACK
TO VERY HIGH PWATS, AND THAT MEANS AN INCREASED FLASH-FLOOD THREAT
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH-
FLOOD THREAT, THERE IS A 2% TORNADO RISK AREA THAT DIPS INTO PART
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WHILE THAT'S A LOW RISK, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DO SHOW PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND JUST ENOUGH HELICITY FOR MAYBE A WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO TO FORM. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL COOL OFF
CONSIDERABLY WITH THE FROPA, BUT WE'LL STILL HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH
RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA, ALONG WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH (AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB, WHICH IS QUITE RARE TO SEE THIS TIME OF
YEAR).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW, UNFORTUNATELY, IS GOING TO STALL OUT
OVER EAST TENNESSEE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND THAT MEANS LOW TO
MEDIUM POPS WILL STAY WITH US THROUGHOUT, MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF
I-65 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. IN FACT, THE
TOTAL QPF FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWS
QUITE THE GRADIENT AS VALUES RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1/4" ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER TO 1 TO 2" ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. SO WHILE
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXTREMELY LOW AFTER THIS EVENING, WE
CAN'T EXACTLY LOOK FORWARD TO DRY WEEK AHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMS BY WEEK'S END, BUT THERE ARE NO
HEAT-RELATED CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MORNING CONVECTION ROLLS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING,
WITH MOST OF THE TERMINALS BEING IMPACTED NOW OR IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. ALSO LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, AND
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE DO EXPECT A SECOND ROUND
OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE P.M.
HOURS, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE
EVENING. LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG AND ALSO LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FROPA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 90 63 82 63 / 70 10 70 30
CLARKSVILLE 86 68 81 69 / 50 20 70 30
CROSSVILLE 83 66 80 65 / 90 80 50 40
COLUMBIA 90 68 83 68 / 50 10 70 30
COOKEVILLE 85 67 80 67 / 90 70 60 40
JAMESTOWN 84 67 80 66 / 90 80 50 40
LAWRENCEBURG 88 67 81 67 / 70 10 60 30
MURFREESBORO 91 68 83 69 / 80 20 70 30
WAVERLY 86 67 79 67 / 40 10 80 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....ROSE
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