241
FXUS64 KOHX 011730
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1230 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY EAST OF I-65. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE POSING A
DAMAGING WIND AND FLASH FLOODING RISK. VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT.
- THERE'S AT LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STICK
AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- EXPECT LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK, MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF I-65, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW ENTERING NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
AND THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY HAS
MOSTLY ENDED, AND SO WE'LL TURN OUR ATTENTION TO ROUND TWO OF
TODAY'S ACTIVE WEATHER. SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
A LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY THE TIME IT
CROSSES I-65 AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS. THEREFORE, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH LESS
IMPACTFUL. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 2.36", WHICH IS A RECORD VALUE FOR THIS DATE AND
ALSO REPRESENTS A RATHER NOTEWORTHY INCREASE OVER THE 0.85" PWAT
VALUE WE OBSERVED 24 HRS. AGO (WHICH WAS BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY). OF COURSE, THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING
WAS RELEASED DURING A SHOWER AND IS SOMEWHAT RAIN-CONTAMINATED UP
TO ~550 MB, BUT IT ALSO ILLUSTRATES THE DRAMATIC MOISTURE
ADVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED THE PAST 24 HRS. SO WE'RE RIGHT BACK
TO VERY HIGH PWATS, AND THAT MEANS AN INCREASED FLASH-FLOOD THREAT
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH-
FLOOD THREAT, THERE IS A 2% TORNADO RISK AREA THAT DIPS INTO PART
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WHILE THAT'S A LOW RISK, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DO SHOW PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND JUST ENOUGH HELICITY FOR MAYBE A WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO TO FORM. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL COOL OFF
CONSIDERABLY WITH THE FROPA, BUT WE'LL STILL HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH
RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA, ALONG WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH (AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB, WHICH IS QUITE RARE TO SEE THIS TIME OF
YEAR).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW, UNFORTUNATELY, IS GOING TO STALL OUT
OVER EAST TENNESSEE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND THAT MEANS LOW TO
MEDIUM POPS WILL STAY WITH US THROUGHOUT, MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF
I-65 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. IN FACT, THE
TOTAL QPF FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWS
QUITE THE GRADIENT AS VALUES RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1/4" ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER TO 1 TO 2" ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. SO WHILE
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXTREMELY LOW AFTER THIS EVENING, WE
CAN'T EXACTLY LOOK FORWARD TO DRY WEEK AHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMS BY WEEK'S END, BUT THERE ARE NO
HEAT-RELATED CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MESSY SETUP FOR THE 18Z TAFS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. A LOW STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT IS COVERING ALL
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN MIDDLE TN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY EAST OF BNA/MQY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
IMPACT SRB AND CSV THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 21-00Z, THOUGH STORMS
COULD PERSIST BEYOND THIS WINDOW IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS. HEAVY RAIN
WILL LEAD TO TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS IN VIS. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, IFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND IT WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 63 82 63 84 / 10 70 30 60
CLARKSVILLE 68 81 69 84 / 20 70 30 40
CROSSVILLE 66 80 65 79 / 80 50 40 80
COLUMBIA 68 83 68 85 / 10 70 30 60
COOKEVILLE 67 80 67 81 / 70 60 40 70
JAMESTOWN 67 80 66 80 / 80 50 40 80
LAWRENCEBURG 67 81 67 83 / 10 60 30 60
MURFREESBORO 68 83 69 85 / 20 70 30 60
WAVERLY 67 79 67 84 / 10 80 20 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page