498
FXUS64 KOHX 151131 AAB
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
631 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS IS RESULTING
IN MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- THERE WILL BE SOME DECREASE IN HEAT RISK NEXT WEEK, BUT ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SUPPORTING A WEEKEND OF INTENSE HEAT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THIS ONGOING HEAT WAVE. HIGHS CLIMB TO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100-102, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIMITED RELIEF. SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SUNDAY CONTINUES THE EXTREME HEAT AS HIGHS CLIMB TO AROUND 100 IN
MANY LOCATIONS, WITH SIMILAR HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING (WEST OF THE PLATEAU) AND HEAT ADVISORY (ALONG THE
PLATEAU) REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY STAYS WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO DRIFT TO THE SW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SUBTLE COOLING, BEGINNING MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND EXPANDING SW BY TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 90S EARLY WEEK, BUT THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN IN THE 70S.
LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN NEXT
WEEK, DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES THAT
CAN SNEAK AROUND THE RIDGE. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER CONTINUED RIDGING INFLUENCE, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS OPPRESSIVE
AS THE WEEKEND PEAK. DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES STILL FREQUENTLY REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW, WITH ONLY MODEST INCREASES
POSSIBLE IF A WEAK BOUNDARY OR SHORTWAVE CAN INFLUENCE THE REGION
LATER IN THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND MID NEXT WEEK
REGARDING ANY SPECIFIC TIMING OF ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
CHANGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF TERMINALS OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME AFTERNOON
TS MAY DEVELOP NEAR KCSV, BUT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF AT THIS TIME. KSRB HAS SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING BUT THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 98 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 97 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 90 72 92 72 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 100 75 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 92 73 94 73 / 10 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 91 72 92 72 / 10 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 97 74 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 99 74 100 76 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>008-
023>030-056>064-075-093>095.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-
066-077>080.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....HURLEY
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