721
FXUS64 KOHX 170230
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
930 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 914 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
- MEDIUM STORM CHANCES MONDAY MAY BRING A DAMAGING WIND RISK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY TO AREAS EAST
OF I-65.
- EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE OUT OF MIDDLE TN BY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WAVE HAS PASSED, BUT RESIDUAL EFFECTS LINGER.
TONIGHT REMAINS WARM AND MUGGY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT.
MONDAY FEATURES ANOTHER HOT DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
FLATTENS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT
INDICES STILL CLIMBING INTO THE 100-105 RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE N DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (HIGHEST
CHANCES E OF I-65). FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED DCAPE, SUPPORTING A RISK OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 3 TO 10 PM WINDOW. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL,
SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT ANY STRONGER
CELLS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OVERNIGHT MONDAY LOWS FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TUESDAY BRINGS THE FIRST SOLID COOLDOWN OF THE PERIOD. NW FLOW AND
DRIER AIR WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN SPOTS,
BUT THE EXTREME VALUES OF THE PAST WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS LIMITED.
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING
AGREEMENT ON A BROADER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTER U.S. THIS
SHOULD FINALLY DISMANTLE THE RESIDUAL RIDGE INFLUENCE, OPEN THE
DOOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO
SUNDAY), AND PUSH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR
AT CSV (TEMPO) WITH LOWER COVERAGE (PROB30) AROUND BNA AND MQY.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL REACH AROUND 10KT FROM THE WNW, THEN BECOME
NNW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 78 95 71 92 / 0 20 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 77 92 69 91 / 0 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 72 90 68 86 / 0 40 40 10
COLUMBIA 77 98 72 94 / 0 20 20 0
COOKEVILLE 73 91 69 88 / 0 40 20 10
JAMESTOWN 72 90 68 86 / 0 50 40 0
LAWRENCEBURG 76 96 71 91 / 0 20 20 10
MURFREESBORO 76 98 72 93 / 0 30 20 0
WAVERLY 76 93 70 92 / 0 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...CRAVENS
LONG TERM....CRAVENS
AVIATION.....13
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